We’re fast drawing to the end of a year in which most major democracies held a national election, be it presidential, parliamentary or local.
The list includes Japan, the US, UK, India, Botswana, EU, France, South Africa, Mexico and Pakistan, as well as authoritarian regimes, such as Venezuela.
At a panel named ‘a new global order – how a year of elections is reshaping international trade’ at the Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade’s Import Export Show on 3 December, trade experts are set to discuss how this ‘year of democracy’ has changed the way we import and export goods and services.
Election preview
Chaired by Fergus McReynolds, the Chartered Institute’s EU & international director, the panel will feature Kate Foster, senior international affairs advisor at the Federation of Small Businesses, David Henig, director of the UK Trade Policy Project, and Emma Rowland, policy advisor at the Institute of Directors.
The expert panel are set to give their insight on what the trade landscape looks like following the ‘year of democracy’, which has almost run its course.
While each election has had its unique impact on international trade, the most impactful is almost certainly the US presidential race this November.
Election
Writing in the aftermath of the US election, Henig said that the return of Donald Trump to the White House represented a challenge for European policymakers.
The first task for them should be to “discuss the global economy as it really exists”.
“One in which our economic security and prosperity has been built on trade, but which has involved painful adjustments on the way.”
Aside from the announced 10% tariff hike, Trump is likely to return to a more antagonistic approach to China.
Newly-elected prime minister Sir Keir Starmer is charged with working out how the UK will handle these tariffs, while managing its relationships with China and the EU, according to Henig.
Europe and Africa
Election season swept Starmer’s government to power in the UK and has also changed the geopolitical landscape across Europe.
The return of a Labour government in July prompted the UK to switch its attention to firming up connections with Europe and ditching previous Conservative administration’s ‘Global Britain’ plan.
Meanwhile, the centre ground held in the EU’s parliamentary elections, but an emboldened right wing has already forced compromises on environmental legislation.
“The European parliamentary elections gave us two messages,” said McReynolds.
“First, there remains a majority in the centre for a strong Europe, and that is crucial for stability. In other words, the centre is holding.”
The stability of its leadership enabled the EU to continue its sanctions regime against Russia, set out a plan to beef up European economic security and apply tariffs to Chinese electric vehicles.
The Import Export Show is being held 3 December, at the Leonardo Royal Hotel in London. You can find out more here.
