Following another year of change for importers and exporters, we’ve spoken to a few of the Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade’s members to get their views on how ongoing trade issues in the UK, Europe, the US and China could play out in the year to come.
Border strategy
33 Bedford Row Chambers barrister and Chartered Institute member Hammad Baig says he is optimistic about the potential for “increased trade efficiency and innovation” as the UK government gears up to deliver its “ambitious 2025 Border Strategy”.
The inclusion of plans for an Electronic Travel Authorisation to smooth passenger journeys through ports is a welcome part of this, he said, while “a major review of the agencies and checks at the border is underway to rationalise these processes wherever possible”.
“The establishment of a new design authority for the border will bring together all public sector bodies involved in border design and delivery, ensuring a coordinated approach.”
Tariff concerns
Baig does, however, have “significant concerns” for the year ahead. The “potential for escalating trade wars, particularly with the US under new leadership, poses a risk to global trade stability”, while the EU's implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and itsDeforestation Regulation (EUDR) “could introduce complexities and compliance challenges for businesses”.
“Ongoing geopolitical tensions and shifting policies further cloud the outlook, making it crucial for businesses to stay agile and informed.”
These challenges mean that traders will need to be careful to “mitigate risks” this year, he added.
EU agreement?
Sean Ramsden, CEO of International Trade Award-winning Ramsden International, singles out a possible veterinary agreement with the EU, pledged in Labour’s general election manifesto, as an exciting prospect for UK trade in 2025.
“Brexit created so much friction in exporting food and drink to the EU. We were forced to set up our own European subsidiary to handle the import process, to reduce our range significantly, and increase prices and lead times.”
The bloc had previously been “the easiest market to sell to”, Ramsden adds, but his firm have now found it to be “one of the most difficult”.
“None of this,” he argues, “benefits anyone either side of the border, and of course, UK food and drink exports to the EU have plummeted.”
“It’s time for policy-makers to prioritise this crucial sector in our new, ‘refreshed’ relationship with our EU partners.”
The government has recently been working on a ‘reset’ of the UK’s relationship with the EU, as set out in chancellor Rachel Reeves’ recent speech to EU finance ministers in Brussels, where she called for a “closer economic relationship”.
Getting on with the job
Martin Morris, managing director at Consulting Nordics AB, echoes Ramsden’s thoughts on the issue of food exports to the EU.
Smaller businesses in the sector, he says, used to export high volumes of their products around Europe, but now no longer do so owing to new rules in place since the UK’s exit from the EU.
“Companies like that just basically gave up. If your product is any more complicated, if you’re producing chocolate biscuits and you’ve got to produce a veterinary certificate to show the origin – a lot of stuff has disappeared off the shelves.”
“I think that the new government is making the right noises about getting closer to our European trading partners. Those barriers have to come down.”
More broadly, he feels that it’s “going to be an exciting time” for those in trade – regardless of what happens. On the developments in the US and China on trade – including tariffs – he says he and others “are listening, we’re taking notes”.
“We simple export people somehow make the best of it and simply get on with the job. I, for one, will be doing that, but we don’t know what’s going to happen.”
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