This week in trade begins with the UK unveiling its new AI plan, with prime minister Sir Keir Starmer setting out how the technology can revive growth and public service performance.
There’s also a raft of annual releases from leading international organisations, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Economic Forum. They’ll be setting out their forecasts for key economic trends in 2025 amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding how US trade policy will impact the global economy.
Finally, there’s a LinkedIn Live event from the Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade, offering people managers insight into how they can upskill their teams with the trade skills necessary for 2025.
UK’s AI vision
The government has launched its AI plan today (13 January), setting out how the technology can be used to boost the UK’s economy and public services.
The BBC reports that the plan has been in the works since last summer, when AI adviser Matt Clifford was asked to review the UK’s capabilities and create a set of recommendations for future development.
The government claims the plan will create over 13,000 jobs and is backed by leading tech firms, reported to have committed over £14bn towards multiple AI projects already.
In a Financial Times op-ed, Starmer sets out the opportunities for AI to enhance public sectors services and boost the UK economy, adding that it’s vital the UK leads the way in the technology’s development:
“Some countries are going to make AI breakthroughs and export them to the world. Others will be left to buy those breakthroughs and import them.
“I don’t believe government should be passive or neutral on this — this is the bread and butter of industrial policy.”
Amid increasing geopolitical uncertainty ahead of president-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration next week (20 January) and questions over which relationships the UK will prioritise, Starmer also said that the UK must seek an independent path “go our own way” on AI.
“We don’t need to walk down a US or an EU path on AI regulation.”
IMF outlook
The IMF will publish its annual World Economic Outlook on Friday (17 January), a twice-yearly evaluation of global economic prospects.
Speaking to press in Washington on Friday (10 January), IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said that 2025 holds “quite a lot of uncertainty”, driven largely around concerns about the impact of US trade policy on the global economy.
She added that if president-elect Trump follows through on his plans to apply a blanket 20% tariff on all imports, the effects would be felt by countries “more integrated into the global supply chain”.
Georgieva also highlighted the ongoing trend towards higher long-term borrowing costs, a response to increased uncertainty and a hangover from higher Covid-era borrowing, commenting that many nations faced difficult fiscal decisions to control public debt amid challenging political environments.
“It has proven very difficult for fiscal policy to act promptly, given public sentiments, and that takes us to what is our main challenge at the fund — and it is tackling this low-growth, high-debt conundrum.”
Her comments come as UK chancellor Rachel Reeves feels the sting of rising UK borrowing costs, with 10-year bonds reaching their highest level for 16 years.
Key releases
Other global organisations will be releasing their 2025 forecasts next week, with the World Economic Forum’s Global Risk Report due on Wednesday (15 January) and the International Labour Organization’s World Employment and Social Outlook Report coming out on Thursday (16 January).
There’ll also be some of the first national economic data releases for 2025, including US inflation figures on Wednesday, which ended last year on the up, rising from 2.6% to 2.7% between October and November.
China will also be releasing its quarterly economic GDP and economic data on Friday, amid concerns about a lack of steam in its economy, as deflationary pressures continue to worry investors, and its export-led growth model remains imperilled by Trump’s 60% tariff threats.
The Boston Consulting Group has already attracted headlines, with predictions of UK trade falling relative to GDP over the next decade. Despite Reeves' work to build financial ties with China, trade with the Asian nation is forecast drop, along with EU figures, as post-Brexit regulations are set to hamper trade.
Chartered Institute
This week the Chartered Institute will be hosting its first LinkedIn Live event on Wednesday, offering learning and development managers and HR specialists insight into how they can equip their teams with trade expertise appropriate for 2025.
Featuring a panel including the organisation’s Academy director, Daniela Turiccki, and Imports Advisory Practice lead, Ilona Kawka, the session will cover topics including how trade professionals navigate supply chain disruptions and key regulatory changes ahead in 2025 and how to prepare for them.
There’ll also be discussion of qualifications that can support the development of relevant skills.
Held at 2pm on Wednesday 15 January, you can sign up for the session here.
Other dates in the diary
Monday – Joe Biden delivers final foreign policy speech
Tuesday – Finland hosts Baltic Sea NATO allies summit
Wednesday – Results from: Citigroup, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Currys, Hays
Thursday – Human Rights Watch World Report
Friday – Putin meets Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian in Moscow
Saturday – National March for Palestine scheduled with disputed route in front of BBC headquarters
Sunday – Deadline for ByteDance to divest TikTok or face US ban (barring Supreme Court intervention)
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