This week will feature two major moments in UK politics, including the Labour government’s first Budget since winning back power in the summer and the final round of voting in the Conservative Party’s leadership election.
Budget
On Wednesday (30 October), chancellor Rachel Reeves will address Parliament to set out her first Budget – though some of its provisions will come as little surprise, following weeks of discussion, speculation and apparent policy leaks.
Reeves is expected to change the UK government’s fiscal rules to enable an additional £20bn in government investment. The Resolution Foundation argues that this change will “boost growth” in its pre-Budget report, though gilt yields – an indicator of the cost of borrowing for the government – have increased following reports of the change, according to Reuters.
Today, meanwhile, prime minister Sir Keir Starmer has said the Budget will “embrace the harsh light of fiscal reality”, as noted by the Guardian.
“It’s time to choose a clear path, and embrace the harsh light of fiscal reality so we can come together behind a credible, long-term plan. It’s time we ran towards the tough decisions, because ignoring them set us on the path of decline. It’s time we ignored the populist chorus of easy answers… We’re never going back to that.”
Wednesday will also see the publication of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) report assessing Reeves’ economic policies and the effect they are likely to have on the UK in the next five years.
Former chancellor Jeremy Hunt has opposed the publication of the report, which he says is likely to criticise the policies of the previous Conservative government on the same day as the Budget’s announcement, arguing it amounts to a political intervention.
Conservative leadership contest
The Conservative Party’s leadership contest will come to a close this Saturday, as members of the party vote between the two remaining candidates – former business and trade secretary Kemi Badenoch and former immigration secretary Robert Jenrick.
A survey of Conservative members by ConservativeHome found that Badenoch enjoyed a 24-point lead over Jenrick, who insisted in a speech in London that there remained “everything to fight for” in a contest that is “neck and neck”.
As we noted in our recent feature examining what the two candidates think on trade, Badenoch has emphasised the importance of quality over quantity in striking trade deals with other nations. She presided over the UK’s accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
Jenrick, meanwhile, has been more cautious about trade with China in particular, stating that it is “blindingly obvious China is a threat to the UK”.
US election campaign
US Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris is due to give a speech tomorrow providing her ‘closing argument’ for the presidency, as the countdown to Election Day reaches one week.
The address in Washington DC will place emphasis on providing a ‘new way forward’, Fox 5 DC reports, while also seeking to warn voters of what Harris’ campaign say are the dangers of a potential second Trump administration.
The final week of the election campaign comes following several appearances by Trump over the last week, including on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast, where he repeated his claim that it would be possible to replace US government revenue from income tax with revenue from new tariffs.
Other dates for the diary
Monday: World Meteorological Society greenhouse gas bulletin published
Tuesday: Finnish president Alexander Stubb to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping
Wednesday: Preliminary estimate figures for EU and US Q3 GDP published
Thursday: Eurozone inflation rate data published
Friday: Manufacturing PMIs for the UK, US, Japan and China published
Saturday: Conservative leadership contest winner announced
Sunday: Moldovan presidential run-off election