This week is headlined by Europe’s responses to US president Donald Trump, as continental leaders meet to discuss how to proceed with their support for Ukraine.
There’s also the prospect of a new government in Germany as federal elections take place on Sunday, while diplomats across the Middle East scramble to maintain a fragile peace that has raised the prospect of a return to shipping through the Red Sea.
Paris meeting
Today (17 February), European leaders are meeting to respond to peace talks with Russia agreed to by Trump without their consent.
UK prime minister Sir Keir Starmer, French president Emmanuel Macron and Polish PM Donald Tusk are among the leaders meeting in Paris today to discuss how Europe continues to support Ukraine’s war efforts.
Starmer is attempting to balance his efforts to rebuild European relations while maintaining a strong relationship with the US, reportedly trying to keep the White House onside by playing down aggressive comments by US vice president JD Vance over the weekend.
Finland’s president, Alexander Stubb, told the FT that “this is the beginning of the beginning. Things are definitely moving. Are Europe’s tectonic plates shifting?”
German elections
In national politics, Germany heads to the polls this Sunday (23 February)
After a fiery debate yesterday (16 February), the leaders of the country’s parties will spend their last few days hunting for votes.
Incumbent centre-left chancellor Olaf Scholz is attempting to cling onto power against his conservative rival Friedrich Merz, while the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) are surging in the polls.
Merz’s Christian Democrats appear set to take first spot, signalling a possible change in European politics as another major country shifts right.
Who will be in the next government is yet to be determined, but Sunday will see whether or not the so-called ‘firewall’ against the AfD will hold.
Middle East
The Middle East will also be in the news again, as diplomatic wrangling continues over the temporary pause in fighting.
Any return to war could threaten the possibility of ships returning to the Red Sea and send energy prices skyrocketing.
The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is due to run out Tuesday. While the Lebanese government is demanding that Israel withdraws from its territory, Israel is asking to maintain soldiers in five outposts.
At the same time, the fragile ceasfire between Hamas and Israel has two weeks to go. Despite a prisoner exchange over the weekend, which has seen hundreds of Palestinians and dozens of Israelis released, the long-term future of the deal is not certain.
The White House is due to discuss its proposals with Israeli officials, while Arab leaders have already rejected plans for the region recently put forward by Trump.
Other dates for the diary
Monday: US secretary of state Marco Rubio continues his Middle East tour
Tuesday: Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey ‘fireside chat’ in Brussels on financial markets
Wednesday: UK inflation data released
Thursday: G20 meeting in South Africa
Friday: Scottish Labour’s annual conference begins
Saturday: Flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data from Europe, US, UK and other nations
Sunday: Screen Actors Guild awards
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