The Week Ahead in International Trade: Global growth predictions, interest rates and EU steel plan

This week will put economic performance front and centre, with the first rumblings of the knock-on effects of US tariffs likely to appear in reports from the OECD and the EU. Decisions on UK and US interest rates are also, according to the OECD, likely to take place in the shadow of increased trade turbulence.

OECD report

This week opens with the publication of the OECD’s next Interim Economic Outlook Report, which has suggested that global growth will slow down in 2025 and 2026 as the US economy does the same.

The report predicts 3.1% global growth this year and 3.0% growth in 2026, while it expects US growth to decelerate to 2.2% in 2025 and 1.6% next year.

The authors emphasise that recent changes in “trade policies” have been “significant”, and that “higher and broader increases in trade barriers would hit growth around the world”.

They also highlight the risks of increased trade costs as a focus for central banks keen on limiting inflation, though it notes that if “trade tensions do not intensify further” then interest rate cuts in major economies are likely to continue.

Rate reviews

Interest rates will be in the news again later this week as the Bank of England weighs up a further cut to its current 4.5% rate.

The bank has cut its previous 0.4% prediction for UK growth in Q1 of 2025 to just 0.1%, but fears over an increase in inflation – CPI and RPI rates are published tomorrow (18 March) – mean it is unlikely to opt for a cut in the rate.

Reuters reporting suggests that the bank will hold the rate on the basis of US president Donald Trump’s implementation of tariffs, which could stoke turbulence in global supply chains.

A poll of economists by the publication found all expected the rate to remain at 4.5%. It contrasts with the approach of the European Central Bank, which made a sixth cut since June 2024 earlier this month in a bid to boost European economies.

The US’ own interest rate decision will also be delivered on Wednesday (19 March) by the Federal Reserve. Trump made his feelings known last month when the rate was left unchanged, and they weren’t positive.

Customs Corner Live

Tomorrow marks the first Customs Corner Live webinar from the Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade, which will give attendees the chance to ask customs experts their burning questions about upcoming changes to the UK border and more.

Chartered Institute Customs Advisory Practice lead Anna Doherty will address recent changes to safety and security (S&S) declarations, as well as the move from the New Computerised Transit System (NCTS) version 5 to NCTS6.

The session, which takes place at 2pm tomorrow, is free - and you can sign up here.

EU shows its steel

The European Commission is scheduled to outline its plans for the EU’s steel and metals industries this week when it publishes its Steel and Metals Action Plan on Wednesday.

The plan, which follows a meeting between EU officials and representatives from some of the bloc’s major producers, will include measures for ensuring the viability of ‘clean steel’, as well as addressing how Europe should respond to tariffs and other trade measures. It comes at a time when the Commission says that the steel industry is “under great pressure”, not least from US tariffs.

Ursula von der Leyen, president of the Commission, said at the recent meeting that “European steelmakers are at a crossroads, facing the challenges of necessary decarbonisation and partly unfair global competition”.

She also reaffirmed the bloc’s commitment to cutting the sector’s carbon emissions, while promising a “strong business case for steel made in Europe”.

The EU’s trade more broadly will be spotlighted tomorrow, when the bloc will publish its latest import and export statistics. They will be particularly notable at a time when trade with the US is under pressure from Trump’s measures – with the American Chamber of Commerce warning that as much as US$9.5trn in annual business could be under threat.