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In the week ahead, we’ll see the US presidential election match-up confirmed after the week-long Democrat convention in Chicago, central bankers set out what they plan to do over the next few months, and the continued fallout from the ongoing Kursk offensive.
DNC
The Democratic Convention opens this week in Chicago, running from Monday to Thursday (19-22 August).
Incumbent vice president Kamala Harris is expected to be formally nominated as the Democrat Party’s candidate for the presidential election, having already secured the support of enough delegates to put her over the threshold several weeks ago. Soon, the delegates will make this official.
Over the next few days, expect cheering crowds and major speakers from the past, but also an outline of what Harris will campaign on in the fall and how she is expected to govern. Despite being an attorney general and senator in California for over a decade, she remains something of an enigma in terms of her plans for the White House.
Former presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, as well as other big names in American politics, are expected to give set-piece speeches attacking Donald Trump and praising Harris, setting the stage for a pivotal presidential showdown later this year.
Central bankers
US and Chinese central banks are set to give hints on their thinking for the months ahead.
With China’s economy appearing to be in a poor place, investors are looking for signs on what Beijing might do to help improve things. On Tuesday (20 August), the People’s Bank of China is slated to announce its interest rates policy, with some observers expecting no change despite July’s surprise cut.
From 22-24 August, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosts the Jackson Hole Symposium. Fed chair Jerome Powell will address the symposium, and analysts will be combing through his words for any clue as to what might happen next with interest rates at the Federal Bank’s policy meeting next month. Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey is also expected to speak there.
On Thursday, the European Central Bank is publishing the minutes of its most recent monetary policy discussions. This might give an indication of what they’re planning for the autumn.
Ukraine and Russia
Following the surprise Ukrainian incursion into Kursk last week, attention now turns to what happens next.
Energy markets experienced some turbulence following Ukraine’s seizure of a key section of an oil pipeline and the destruction of two bridges, but so far international trade hasn’t been hit by the offensive. Russia’s Vladmir Putin has been relatively quiet on the attack, while Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has emphasised that he is building a buffer to protect his country and that he is building up an ‘exchange fund’ to strengthen his hand during peace talks.
While peace talks have reportedly been shelved between the two, Ukraine shows no signs of slowing down in its offensive.
Other dates for the diary
- Monday: FT and Schroders Business Book of the Year long list announced
- Tuesday: EU inflation report published
- Wednesday: Indian prime minister Narendra Modi visits Poland
- Thursday: GCSE results day
- Friday: Day for the Remembrance of the Slave Trade and its Abolition
- Saturday: Ukraine Independence Day
- Sunday: Notting Hill Carnival opens in London