The latest profit reports from UK banks will give an idea of what their leaders expect for the economy after US president Donald Trump’s tariffs entered force earlier this month. UK local elections and national polls in Australia and Singapore could also give a political temperature reading this week.
Tariff troubles
There will be evidence on the effects of Trump’s tariffs on the UK economy this week as the earning reports of the country’s banks receive particular attention, coming as the first such reports since ‘Liberation Day’.
While the Q1 profits being delivered only cover the period from January to March, cautionary notes alongside forecasts for the rest of the year will give some indication of the banks’ expectations around the effects of the ongoing global trade war.
“Asia-focused banks are likely to be more impacted by tariffs than the domestics, given that is the region where tariffs will hit hardest, affecting credit demand, credit risk, client activity,” Gary Greenwood, a banking analyst at Shore Capital, told the Guardian.
Other hints at the effect of the measures came from US logistics groups in an FT report over the weekend. The Port of Los Angeles said that scheduled arrivals for the week starting 4 May were down by one third compared with the same time last year, while other groups said container bookings were down significantly since the announcements.
Elections in the UK…
Lincolnshire, West of England, Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, and several other regions of England will go to the polls to select their next mayors this week, as local and mayoral elections take place in select areas.
Greater Lincolnshire will have its inaugural election as a combined authority at the elections on Thursday, with YouGov suggesting Andrea Jenkyns of Reform UK is likely to take the position. Reform could also claim Hull and East Yorkshire, the polling suggests, while the new West of England seat could be set to go Green.
…and beyond
One region slightly further afield that is electing a new leader this week is Singapore, which will vote on Saturday in the shadow of the trade war between two major trade partners, China and the US. Prime minister Lawrence Wong, who is likely to win, has promised cash handouts to help those managing a cost-of-living increase.
Saturday also sees a general election in Australia, where the polls suggest the Labor party, which currently rules as part of a coalition, is once again likely to be the largest party. While tariffs have not dominated the election campaign, it could be an important moment for Australia’s alignments on trade after the current government rejected an offer from China to ‘join hands’ on tariffs.
Chartered Institute events
There are two Chartered Institute webinars to look forward to this week, one public and one member-exclusive.
Our ‘Unlocking the Middle East’ public webinar in partnership with Aramex, rescheduled from last week, takes place tomorrow – there’s still time to sign up here for unique insights on accessing Middle Eastern markets while negotiating their challenges.
On Thursday, meanwhile, we’ll be hosting our next Lunchtime Learning event, which will be a special Customs Corner Live edition that will give members a chance to pose their customs queries to Anna Doherty, the lead of our Customs Advisory Practice. You can book yourself in for that one here.
Other dates for the diary
- Monday: Amazon launches the first satellites in its rival to Elon Musk’s Starlink
- Tuesday: Deputy Bank of England governor Dave Ramsden speaks at the Innovate Finance Global summit
- Wednesday: Preliminary Q1 GDP estimate for the US published
- Thursday: UK, Japan and Australia manufacturing PMIs
- Friday: Eurozone and India manufacturing PMIs
- Saturday: US tariffs of 25% on car parts enters force
- Sunday: Milken Institute Global Conference in the US begins
