The world of trade picks up following a holiday season lull.
This week, there’s the end of the festive parliamentary recess in the UK, TikTok’s arguments will be heard by the highest court in the US ahead of either a potential ban or forced divestment, and Poland begins its six-month presidency of the EU Council, with a renewed focus on security and Ukraine.
Parliament returns
After Christmas recess, parliament returns today, with debates over the Employment Rights Bill resuming on Tuesday (7 January).
Trade is on the docket in the House of Lords, with Lord Lamont raising an oral question on ‘international initiatives to support multilateral free trade and warn against the threat to the world economy of tariffs and protectionism’.
His question follows the business and trade secretary Jonathan Reynolds’ comments to the FT suggesting that the UK will likely swerve the most painful impact of incoming US president Donald Trump’s tariff threats.
This is a result of the UK not running a trade surplus with the US and primarily trading services, not goods. He added that in the event that US tariffs were applied to the UK, it would not retaliate, telling the publication:
“In this country there’s no political constituency for protectionism.”
Trudeau watch
Will Canada be getting a new prime minister imminently? Canadian media is reporting that incumbent Justin Trudeau could resign as early as today.
Ahead of this year's election, Trudeau has faced falling confidence among his own party, with sources cited by the Globe and Mail suggesting he may act ahead of an emergency meeting scheduled for Wednesday, to avoid it "look[ing] like he was forced out by his own MPs”.
The Guardian reports that Trudeau's Liberal Party is polling at just 16%, a century-low figure which would see the Conservative Party win this year's election, which must be called before October 2025.
Common political and economic challenges facing Western governments such as record inflation and cost of living, in addition to housing shortgages, are cited as reasons for Trudeau's dwindling popularity.
TikTok hearing
Social media firm TikTok is set to appeal its impending US ban in the country’s highest court on Friday (10 January).
The Guardian reported that the US Supreme Court agreed to hear arguments last month (18 December) after arguments from Chinese parent company ByteDance were dismissed by federal courts. The company claimed the ban would violate American’s first Amendment right to free speech.
In a statement following the Supreme Court’s agreement, ByteDance said:
“We’re pleased with today’s Supreme Court order. We believe the court will find the TikTok ban unconstitutional so the over 170 million Americans on our platform can continue to exercise their free speech rights.”
The law that will either ban the app or force its sale is currently set to come into force on 19 January.
E-commerce loss
In addition to video-sharing, the app has grown its e-commerce offering in recent years, with Reuters reporting that US spending on TikTok Shop rose at the end of 2024, with the company releasing a statement to say that Black Friday spending from its 170 million US consumers helped it reach US$100m in sales.
Hawke Media CEO Erik Huberman told the publication that many brands value the channel and would be hit by a TikTok ban:
“There isn't an alternative. It will be a lost revenue stream.”
Currently, the app promotes goods from third-party sellers, often shipping from China. However, its recently begun attracting more US sellers in order to boost competitiveness on shipping times.
Poland assumes EU council presidency
This week Poland will settle into its presidency of the EU council, after taking over from Hungary last week (1 January). Polish prime minister Donald Tusk announced his plans to prioritise defence and continued support for Ukraine, telling the gala to mark its presidency on Friday (3 January):
“Let's do everything so that Europe and Poland do not have to pay the highest price for freedom, for strength, for sovereignty.”
He was joined by European Council president, Antonio Costa, who echoed the sentiment, telling attendees that:
“This year we must continue to stand with Ukraine – as much as necessary, for as long as it takes, to win a comprehensive, just and lasting peace.”
Shift in stance
This stands in contrast to Hungarian leader, Viktor Orban, who made one of his final acts of Hungary’s stewardship to try and delay a decision on Russian sanctions until after US president-elect Donald Trump assumes office.
Decisions on continuing EU sanctions on Russia are taken every six months, with the next one due 31 January, 11 days after Trump’s inauguration.
Orban has expressed scepticism towards EU support for Ukraine throughout Hungary’s leadership of the council, and last year warned that the bloc would have to “adapt” quickly and give up its financial and military backing if Trump won the election.
Trump had vowed to end the conflict on “day one” of his presidency, in what many interpret to mean an instant withdrawal of support for Ukraine, forcing an unwelcome peace deal that would cede Ukrainian territory taken by Russia.
Other dates in the diary
Monday – Benjamin Netanyahu’s testimony resumes in his criminal trial
Tuesday – Orthodox Christmas
Wednesday – Electronic Travel Authorisation required for US travellers entering the UK
Thursday – State funeral for former US president Jimmy Carter
Friday – Nicolas Maduro begins new term as Venezuelan president following controversial election results
Saturday – Germany’s Socialist Democratic Party (SPD) and Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) hold party conferences ahead of the country’s February election
Sunday – Croatia holds presidential election runoff
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