Even during the summer months, the world of international trade rarely slows down.
This week, we’ll get an idea of how the world’s finances are looking, find out how much a recent stock market plunge might impact the global economy, see the arrival of a new leader of the Welsh government and we will learn who current presumptive democratic nominee Kamala Harris is picking as her vice president, ahead of the crucial November US presidential election.
Indexes and interest rates
A raft of Purchasing Manager Indexes (PMI) are due out this week. Today (5 August), S&P releases its July PMIs for the services industry, including China, the EU, India and the UK, while on Tuesday (6 August), S&P and HCOB release their construction PMIs for the EU, UK, France, Germany and Italy.
All of this will paint a better picture of the world economy as more central banks consider interest rate cuts. Last week’s decision by the Bank of England to cut rates – for the first time in four years – is followed by this week’s decision by India’s central bank on whether to follow suit.
Stock response
Following last week’s global stock market plunge, Wall Street traders are talking up the idea of the US Federal Reserve making an ‘emergency’ cut. The Japanese Nikkei and the US Nasdaq both suffered huge losses, rattled by weak economic data from the US and the prospect of heightened tensions between Israel and Iran.
The Nikkei saw one of the worst falls since 1987 today, with some traders expecting this rout to continue into European and US markets. Marcus Asworth, Bloomberg’s Opinion columnist for the European markets, said this would be a “mistake”, but as stock markets continue to wobble, we could see more talk of intervention.
New first minister
Eluned Morgan is set to be voted in as first minister of Wales on Tuesday (6 August). Following the resignation of her predecessor, Vaughan Gething, in early July, the governing Welsh Labour Party rallied around Morgan as a compromise candidate. She is set to be the first female Welsh first minister and would have Huw Irranca-Davies as her deputy.
Morgan, a former member of the European Parliament, previously led on green energy matters for the Socialist Group during her time in Brussels. She is also a member of the House of Lords – she was made a Peer in 2011 – and worked on the EU Referendum Bill, as well as serving as a shadow minister for Wales and for foreign affairs.
Veep watch
Kamala Harris has set a deadline for herself to name her running mate by Wednesday (7 August). One potential running mate, North Carolina governor Roy Cooper, has already announced he does not want to be vetted.
All potential contenders, including Pennsylvania governor Josh Sapiro, Arizona senator Mark Kelly and Minnesota governor Tim Waltz, have been interviewed by Harris and a decision is required before the Democratic National Convention starting next week (19 August).
Other dates for the diary
· Monday: Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders car sales figures released
· Tuesday: The US hosts Australian ministers for AUSMIN consultations on major political issues
· Wednesday: China’s July trade figures
· Thursday: Nominations open in Scottish Conservative Party leadership election
· Friday: National Book Lovers Day
· Saturday: FA Community Shield
· Sunday: The Olympic Games ends