The week ahead will see prime minister Sir Keir Starmer visit Brussels in a meeting which could offer greater details on his proposed “reset” of UK-EU relations.
In Birmingham, the Conservative Party will host its annual conference, with the four leadership contenders vying to impress.
And the Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade will be offering members an insight into the next phase of the Border Target Operating Model (BTOM) with Thursday’s Lunchtime Learning.
EU ‘reset’
Following his trip to New York, in which he addressed world leaders at the 79th UN General Assembly, Starmer will be heading to Brussels for a meeting with European Commission (EC) President, Ursula von der Leyen.
Ahead of the meeting, von der Leyen and other senior EU diplomats warned that Starmer must provide more clarity on what he mean by his intention to “reset” the UK’s relationship with the bloc, as reported by the FT.
So far, overtures have consisted of committing to regular bilateral summits at July’s European Political Community meeting he hosted at Blenheim Palace, while rejecting an initial EU Youth Mobility Scheme proposal – a position he doubled down on last week when discussing the meeting, insisting there are “no plans for a youth mobility scheme”.
It’s expected that Starmer will continue to encounter pressure to commit to a youth mobility deal, which is seen by analysts as a precursor to more substantial agreements on trade and security, such as the veterinary deal Labour pledged in its election manifesto.
One diplomat told the FT of growing impatience among EU officials and that the UK “needs to tell us what they want”.
Conservative Party conference
The Conservative Party will host delegates in Birmingham this week (29 September – 2 October), with all eyes on the remaining contenders for the party leadership: Kemi Badenoch, Robert Jenrick, James Cleverly and Tom Tugendhat.
The agenda has Badenoch and Tugendhat receiving audience questions today, with Cleverly and Jenrick following on Tuesday. The final day of the conference will give each contender the opportunity to address the conference audience.
This is one of the last chances for the contenders to make their pitch before Conservative MPs narrow the field to the final two next week (9 and 10 October) and the final decision turns over to the membership vote.
Issues likely to dominate leadership pitches include the UK’s membership of the European Convention of Human Rights, the economy, border controls and illegal migration.
The BBC reports the current party consensus is that in an overall “lacklustre” race, Jenrick is currently the favourite, followed by Badenoch – both with policy offerings appealing to the right of the party. Unifying centrist candidates Cleverly and Tugendhat were seen to have underwhelmed, so far.
Many Tory MPs are looking to the final-day speech as a crucial moment, with many hoping for a “David Cameron moment”, in which the former PM surprised delegates with an assured, no-note conference performance and beat favourite David Davis to the party leadership in 2005.
US port strikes
There are less than 24 hours to go before a planned port strike on the US east coast and Gulf of Mexico, Reuters reports. The industrial action could cause extensive delays and disruption across the international supply chain.
The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) confirmed the plans yesterday, with one of its members, union United States Maritime Alliance, set to stage walkouts from ports in Maine down to Texas in a bid to secure higher wages.
This will be the first east coast-wide strike since 1977 and targets ports estimated to handle approximately half of all US shipping.
Freight rates have already been rising and the FT reports that analysts are anticipating that consumers could feel the impact if shipping firms and retailers pass prices on to customers ahead of the festive shopping season.
Speaking to the FT, Xeneta’s chief analyst Peter Sand warned that this disruption could have a global impact, given existing difficulties created by Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea.
Mexico’s inauguration
Mexico’s first female president, Claudia Sheinbaum, will take office on Tuesday (1 October), following a landslide victory in June.
The incoming leader is a protégé of outgoing president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, and has promised to continue some of his key policies, such as expanding new social welfare programmes and investing in major infrastructure projects.
This, along with a pledge to raise the minimum wage, has raised eyebrows as she also promised not to raise taxes, telling reporters this summer:
“Without deep fiscal reforms one can, with current income, reorientate (spending) to where it is needed.”
Challenges also lie ahead, with a 2026 review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) likely to prove difficult in the event of a Donald Trump victory in the US election – set for November.
The former US president has promised an escalation of the protectionist policies he implemented during his first term, if elected.
Chartered Institute
The third of this semester’s member-exclusive Lunchtime Learning webinars will be held on Thursday (3 October).
This week the topic with be the Border Target Operating Model (BTOM), with the third phase of the UK’s new border system being implemented from 31 October.
Members can learn more about new customs requirements, including the introduction of safety and security declarations for EU imports, by signing up for Thursday’s session, here.
Other dates in the diary
· Monday – The UK’s last coal-fired power plant ceases operations
· Tuesday – New PM Michel Barnier delivers policy address at the French National Assembly
· Wednesday – Emmanuel Macron visits Germany
· Thursday – Yvette Cooper attends G7 interior ministers meeting
· Friday – World Space Week begins
· Saturday – World Teachers’ Day
· Sunday – Tunisia’s presidential election