As US tariffs continue to dominate the news agenda – including in the UK, where the government has slashed import duties to boost business – the World Trade Organization (WTO) is set to deliver its verdict on what it means for the next few months of global trade.
There is advice for handling the fallout of the tariffs at this week’s LinkedIn Live event from the Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade, as well as a first sense of what countries can expect from negotiations over US tariffs, with Japan entering talks on Thursday.
WTO report
The WTO is to issue its first global trade forecast since the return to power of US president Donald Trump on Wednesday (16 April).
The twice-yearly report will set out the organisation’s expectations for trade in a world redefined by Trump’s tariff programme, as well as the US’ ongoing trade war with China. In its most recent edition in October last year, the report predicted a 2.7% increase in global goods trade, while warning of the potential for “rising geopolitical tensions and increased economic policy uncertainty” to upend this picture.
A first expression of the organisation’s view on Trump’s ‘reciprocal’ tariff programme was issued last week, when WTO director general Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said “escalating trade tensions between the US and China pose a significant risk” to global trade. The “least developed nations” will be particularly affected, Okonjo-Iweala added – a prediction likely to be elaborated upon in this week’s report.
LinkedIn Live
The next Chartered Institute LinkedIn Live event discussing the trade war will take place tomorrow at 1pm, this time taking a look at ‘Trade strategies for navigating Trump’s tariffs’.
The session, which you can register for here, will include expert advice from Chartered Institute trade legislation expert Garima Srivastava, as well as top-level insights from international director Fergus McReynolds.
As well as giving immediate advice on the tactics and strategies firms can adopt to negotiate this turbulent new era, the event will also mark the launch of a new toolkit of useful resources. Including guides, explainers and other resources, it will give traders a comprehensive introduction to the issues raised by the new US tariff programme.
It builds on the Chartered Institute’s Tariffs Hub, which offers traders updates on the Chartered Institute services and events that can support them in dealing with the new duties.
Tariff story continues
The first round of post-‘reciprocal’ tariff trade negotiations with the US will kick off this week on Thursday, when Japan will enter bilateral talks over the 24% rate placed on its goods that is currently on a 90-day suspension. During this pause, the current rate on most Japanese goods is 10%, alongside those on most other countries, and the progress made by Japan will set the tone for other countries seeking relief from Trump’s plans.
Reuters reports that Japanese prime minister Shigeru Ishiba will seek to emphasise common ground between his country and the US, while warning Trump of the damage that could be done to the global economy by the measures.
Ishiba told the Japanese parliament that “we need to understand what's behind Trump's argument both in terms of the logic and the emotional elements behind his views”, and said that, while he was not yet considering a new government budget to deal with the fallout, he remained ready to act if necessary.
In a post yesterday on his Truth Social platform, Trump gave a hint at what the week might hold on tariffs as he promised that “nobody is getting ‘off the hook’” on trade barriers and imbalances. He also said that his administration is looking at semiconductors and “the whole electronics supply chain”, which he argued needs to be brought to the US over national security concerns.
Stats update
With the first rumblings of consequences to Trump’s tariff programme now audible, economic data releases from Europe to China and beyond become even more significant.
China’s monthly trade data, released today, showed its exports growing ahead of the implementation of the US’ mammoth 145% tariff on its goods. The chief executive of UK electronics retailer Currys, meanwhile, told the FT today that he fears China’s capacity means its goods will instead flood the UK market as the US tightens imports of the Asian nation’s electronics.
There will also be EU inflation rate data published this Thursday, after the most recent data was lower than expected in part, according to a Bloomberg survey, because of US tariffs. This has led to suggestions in some quarters that the European Central Bank (ECB) should consider a cut to its interest rate – a decision also due on Thursday.
Other dates for the diary
Monday: Captain of ship in the North Sea tanker collision in court
Tuesday: Copernicus European State of the Climate report published
Wednesday: China GDP stats
Thursday: Canadian election debate
Friday: US vice president JD Vance visits Italy
Saturday: Major US protest planned against Trump administration
Sunday: Easter Sunday
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