In a global year of elections, this week is the big one for the UK, as the general election sees the Conservatives and Labour vie to put together the next government.
There is also a second round of voting in France later this week, while the EU could see tensions rise as Hungary assumes the bloc’s rotating presidency. In UK customs, the New Computerised Transit System (NCTS) receives an update to version 5 today; Institute of Export & International Trade (IOE&IT) members can learn more here.
UK election arrives
The UK general election campaign concludes on Thursday (4 July), when voters will go to the polls. The final week of the campaign is likely to see Labour leader Keir Starmer, Conservative prime minister Rishi Sunak and other party leaders make their closing arguments to the public.
You can read the Daily Update’s story on Labour’s trade policy proposals here, as well as our summary of the Conservatives’ offer. There is also a look at the trade policies of the smaller parties here.
Jonathan Reynolds, the shadow business secretary, reiterated to the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) conference last week that Labour would not seek to rejoin the EU single market or customs union. The EU, for its part, would not look to “give the UK a gift” on changed trading arrangements, according to sources speaking to the Guardian today.
French election
Following a first round which saw Marine le Pen’s National Rally (RN) come first, French voters will go to the polls once again on Sunday for the crucial second round in the country’s parliamentary elections.
According to the FT, investors in France are predicting a hung parliament after the conclusion of voting. Market sentiment has improved at the prospect of the RN failing to win an overall majority.
Centrists aligned with president Emmanuel Macron agreed to some cooperation with left-wing parties on Sunday in a bid to prevent the RN from achieving power, and both are considering withdrawing candidates from some areas to make way for the other to consolidate an anti-RN vote.
Analysing the result for the FT, HEC Paris business school professor Armin Steinbach said a “relative majority for the RN, not an absolute one, is the most likely outcome next week”.
Hungarian presidency
The French election could mark a change in direction for the EU should the RN achieve power, with a Eurosceptic party playing a major role in the bloc’s second-largest economy. Another factor that could alter the political course of the bloc is Hungary’s assumption of its rotating presidency today.
Hungary’s role in the EU has been controversial in recent times, as PM Viktor Orbán has used his veto power to limit EU support for Ukraine in its war with Russia. The FT reported last week that other figures within the bloc have been making efforts to limit the ability of Hungary to veto such measures.
The recently-opened EU talks on accession with Ukraine could be limited by the role of Hungary, while the reappointment of Ursula von der Leyen to European Commission president could be a source of renewed tensions between the country and its fellow member states.
Other dates for the diary
Monday: UK manufacturing PMI published
Tuesday: Ukrainian industrial production figures for May and EU inflations stats
Wednesday: UK services PMI published
Thursday: SMMT car sales numbers released and EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles enter force
Friday: US employment report for the month of June
Saturday: World Snail Racing Championships
Sunday: UK national Thank You Day