The week begins with US voters choosing between two sets of protectionist trade policies - albeit at varying levels - as the US election takes place tomorrow (5 November).
New Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch will take on prime minister Sir Keir Starmer at PMQs, before Starmer’s off to Hungary for the European Political Community Summit.
There are also member-exclusive offerings for networking and learning from the Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade.
US election
After an eventful campaign, which has seen one candidate substituted and multiple assassination attempts, along with some strong pledges on tariff increases, Americans will go to the polls on Tuesday to choose the 47th President of the United States.
Democratic candidate and current vice president Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump are currently polling closely among voters, although early voting counts and swing state polling suggest Harris could have an edge.
Ahead of the vote, there have been numerous reports that discrepancies in polling data from different organisations, including some right-leaning polls suggesting a Trump victory, will be used by the Republican party to contest a Harris win.
The Guardian reported that early lawsuits alleging fraud have already been prepared, with both Democrats and Republicans voicing fears of a repeat of the Capitol Hill riots of January 2021.
Beyond the vote, commentators have warned that whoever wins will face a difficult path ahead economically and geopolitically, amid growing tensions with China and other BRICS nations.
On trade, Trump has pledged a flat 20% tariff rate on all imported goods, with a 60% rate planned for Chinese goods. Harris, meanwhile, is set to continue the more moderate path of President Joe Biden, prioritising US jobs over trade.
You can read our profiles on Harris and Trump to get more detailed insight into their plans for US trade policy if elected.
Badenoch’s PMQs debut
Following her victory over Robert Jenrick this weekend in the Conservative Party leadership content, Kemi Badenoch will square off against prime minister Sir Keir Starmer in her first PMQs on Wednesday (6 November).
While her combative style was critiqued throughout the race, several of her supporters told the BBC that they welcomed her energy, praising her for being “up for a political fight with Starmer”.
Noting the scale of the party’s defeat in July’s general election, others voiced confidence in her ability to turn the party’s fortunes around, saying that she “gets that it’s existential”.
Following debates on Rachel Reeves’ first budget as chancellor last week, we can expect plenty of questions from Badenoch skewering the numbers.
Starmer in Europe
On Thursday, Starmer will be among European leaders in Hungary for the European Political Community leader’s summit in Budapest.
Ahead of the event, Reuters reports that Hungarian president Viktor Orbán has warned that a Trump victory in the US election would require the EU to rethink its “pro-war course” by hindering its ability to support Ukraine’s defensive effort against Russia.
Other potential sources of discord could be Starmer’s “reset” of the EU-UK relationship, on which European officials say they remain unclear.
Starmer has met several European leaders since taking office in July, including European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, though with little to show for it so far.
In early October, a joint statement was released highlighting plans for further “strategic cooperation” on “shared challenges”, including support for Ukraine, as well as a “reaffirmed” commitment to the Windsor Framework and Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA).
However, a push from the EU on a youth mobility scheme has been repeatedly rebuffed by Starmer, and officials have said they’re no closer to understanding what the UK wants from the reset.
Speaking to the i, a member of a European trade body said that there’s been no meaningful change between Labour’s approach to the EU and the previous, Conservative government.
“For all the pro-Europe noise ahead of the election, the Brexiteer muscle memory of the last government is clearly still there.”
The publication reports that other lobbyists noted their contact with Labour representatives dropped significantly after the party entered power, diminishing hopes of a clear strategy for the 2026 TCA review. However, domestic challenges and time away from Parliament amid summer recess and Party Conference season will also have absorbed the new government’s time.
The Chartered Institute
This week the Chartered Institute will be offering members two opportunities to connect and learn on the theme of export controls.
Tomorrow, we’ll hold the export controls SIG, hosted by our head of membership Sophie Tothill and featuring expert insights from our export controls advisory practice lead Andy Bridges and our sector lead for manufacturing and export controls Scott Parker. There’ll also be the opportunity for attendees to share their respective challenges and opportunities in small discussions led by experts.
On Thursday, we’ll have the next session of our Lunchtime Learning Webinar series. Jake Williams, the Export Control Joint Unit’s head of business awareness, will be explaining the latest trends in export controls, the potential impact of controls and sanctions on your business and best practice for compliance. He'll be joined by Raymond Burgin, the Chartered Institute's academy education delivery team lead. Members can still register here.
Othe dates in the diary
Monday – UNCTAD Least Developed Countries report published
Tuesday – UK services PMI released
Wednesday – UK construction PMI released
Thursday – Bank of England interest rate decision
Friday – FAO Food Price Index released
Saturday – Reform UK conference in Exeter
Sunday – Cenotaph Remembrance Sunday service held