The Week Ahead in International Trade: WTO Public Forum, EU commissioners announced and Trump-Harris debate

A busy week for trade politics beckons, as the World Trade Organization (WTO) Public Forum convenes, the new EU trade commissioner is named and the next debate takes place in a US election that offers voters very different policies on tariffs.

WTO Public Forum

The WTO Public Forum 2024 kicks off tomorrow (10 September) with the publication of the annual WTO World Trade Report.

The report, which “aims to deepen understanding about trends in trade, trade policy issues and the multilateral trading system”, will be accompanied by an opening speech at the forum by WTO director general Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, likely to address the core theme of ‘re-globalisation’.

Sessions will run from Tuesday to Friday on everything from food security to the automotive industry and industrial policy. This year’s event is likely to focus on how “the opportunity to integrate new actors into the international trading system and build resilience” as supply chains are “being re-organised”, according to the organisation.

European Commissioners announced

The EU’s new roster of commissioners is to be announced on Wednesday, including the assignment of the bloc’s top international trade role.

Politico predicts that the job will be handed to Wopke Hoekstra, former Dutch foreign minister and second deputy prime minister. He is currently the commissioner for climate action, a brief that could overlap with trade, as the EU’s dispute with China over electric vehicle (EV) imports continues.

Hoekstra said last week that the EU and its economy was in “urgent need of renewal”, adding:

“The European economy, for all its strengths, simply lacks the dynamism, innovation, and entrepreneurship required to compete and deliver sustainable economic growth that we actually need.”

Addressing the dispute with China, he said:

“We aim not to sever ties with China. But we will have to restore the balance. Equal rules for both parties, plain and simple. To achieve this, we will no longer just talk, but we also have to act, if competition continues to be unfair.

“Europe needs to counteract Chinese subsidies for electric cars that would otherwise overtake our European brands. We did the same in biofuels and other sectors and will continue on this path.  We need to diversify our supply and cherish key industries in Europe.”

Trump-Harris debate

The turbulent US election campaign reaches its next milestone this week as former president Donald Trump and current vice president Kamala Harris face off at an ABC News debate tomorrow.

Polling analysis by the FT suggests that Harris enters the debate with a lead of 2.9% among voters, and it could be a major turning point in the campaign with no further debates scheduled before polls open on 5 November.

Trump’s approach to trade could include a ratcheting up of tariffs on all goods entering the US, inspired by protectionist twentieth-century president William McKinley, according to a recent interview. Harris, meanwhile, is likely to maintain Biden administration tariff policy – that means putting restrictions on trade with those who “steal our products” but admitting “we need to sell our stuff”.

UK economy

The state of the UK economy and public finances will come into further focus this week, as the ONS releases GDP stats and the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) publishes its latest report on fiscal sustainability on Thursday.

Labour market stats, also published this week by the ONS, could also play a crucial role in deciding government expenditure. With this year’s earnings likely to be used in calculating next year’s state pension, a large boost to wages could see a rise in pensions that may put additional pressure on the public finances.

It comes as an attempt to tighten government spending by chancellor Rachel Reeves – means-testing of winter fuel cost support to pensioners – is likely to spark heated discussion at this week’s House of Commons debates.

There will be other moments to watch out for in the Commons this week too, with an untimed short debate on Thursday on ‘steps being taken to raise awareness among UK businesses of commercial opportunities in African markets, and support UK exports to Africa’.

Conservative leadership contest continues

The next round of voting in the Conservative Party leadership contest will take place tomorrow after former home secretary Priti Patel was knocked out in last week’s vote by Conservative MPs.

Former immigration minister Robert Jenrick topped last week’s vote with 28 votes, beating second-placed Kemi Badenoch on 22.

The other remaining candidates are James Cleverly, Mel Stride and Tom Tugendhat, who said yesterday that the UK needs a “Conservative revolution” delivering “a higher wage, lower migration economy”.

Other dates for the diary

Monday: Japan’s revised Q2 GDP published

Tuesday: Parliamentary elections in Jordan

Wednesday: UK overseas trade numbers published

Thursday: G20 GDP data published

Friday: Bank of England/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey published

Saturday: Lib Dem autumn conference begins

Sunday: Independence day in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua