The Week in Trade: China’s economic struggles worry analysts, cheer for UK retailers and a shock for SPS importers

August may be a quiet time of the year but the world of international trade certainly doesn’t pack up for a month. This week we take a look at fresh concerns about China’s sluggish growth, some heartening Office for National Statistics (ONS) data for UK retailers and the fallout from the first Common User Charge (CUC) invoices for sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) imports.

The big picture: China’s economic malaise continues, as data from the world’s largest exporter showed it was struggling to pull itself out of the rough patch it has been in for the last few months.

The National Bureau of Statistics found that growth and fixed-term investment had both slowed to the lowest rate in months, as the ongoing property crisis continues to weigh down on the Chinese economy. Chinese house prices also continued their downward slide.

Given China’s importance to the global economy, any signs of a deteriorating economy have an impact on multiple sectors. The International Energy Agency trimmed its oil demand outlook for 2025 on the back of these numbers, while China’s steelmakers slashed their output expectations by 9%.

Analysts are keeping an eye on Beijing for any signs that president Xi Jinping might support the economy with a stimulus package, something he has been holding off on for months.

Good week/bad week: It’s been a good week for the UK’s retailers. According to the ONS, retail sales rebounded in July following a weak month in June. Volumes of sales rose 0.5% last month, up from a 0.9% fall in June. Sales volumes also rose by 1.1% in the three months to July, as sports sellers and department stores enjoyed a boost from the European Football Championship and discounts.

It wasn’t such a good week for the movement to green fuels. Danish wind power giant Ørsted has dropped plans to build a European plant to develop green fuels. The company said on Thursday (15 August) that it was no longer developing the plant, which was expected to create e-fuels for use in shipping and aviation, as the market is not fully matured enough to make it commercially viable.

How’s stat? £330m. That’s the government’s original estimate for the cost of new border measures following the introduction of its Border Target Operating Model (BTOM).

However, as the first invoices for the new CUC have been sent this month, the FT reports that some trade bodies have estimated the costs could easily be six times than that, breaching the £2bn threshold.

One small business received a charge of £27,000 – 7% of its profits – suggesting that many companies could be in for a shock.

The week in customs: There was a new edition of Customs Corner this week, led by a warning for pet food manufacturers to make sure they’re adhering to animal by-product rules when importing former foodstuffs now intended for animal consumption (not product of animal origin requirements).

Quote of the week: “The world order has never been under such threat since before the second world war.”

Apocalyptic tones for from Guy Platten, secretary-general of the International Chamber of Shipping, speaking on what a Trump presidency and its highly protectionist trade agenda would mean for international relations.

What else we covered this week: Our new series, What’s the Deal, begins by delving into the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which aims to boost intra-African trade by eliminating barriers and standardising trade rules between its 54 members.

Members can learn more about North American trade in this week’s Trade Digest, which features a look at the US’ ongoing attempts to stop Chinese exports of chemicals connected to fentanyl.

Sticking with the US, we also unpacked what the potential vice-presidencies of election hopefuls Tim Walz and JD Vance could mean for global trade in an election-themed Trade Insights.

Finally, there was a Trade Explained on freight forwarders, exploring their growing role within UK trade, when firms should consider seeking their services and how they should go about vetting them.

True facts: China is continuing its policy of restricting critical mineral exports in response to ratcheting tariffs from the US and EU, having cut international sales of semiconductor staples gallium and geranium last year.

Antimony is the latest mineral affected. It improves the performance of a key solar cell components, making it vital to many nations green transition efforts.

A metallic element with a long history, antimony’s first recorded use was in pottery dating back to 4000BC, owing to appealing silver-blue tint. This same property meant it was used by the ancient Egyptians as eye make-up.

In sulfide form, the element was accorded seven medicinal uses by Roman philosopher Pliny the Elder in the first century, while it was used to make bells and mirrors in the 15th century when alloyed with other metals.