This week’s news includes rumblings that the long-awaited deal between the EU and the Mercosur grouping of Latin American nations could be reaching a conclusion, as well as positive and negative noises around the global consequences of the incoming US administration’s tariff plans.
We’ve also had reports on recent Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade webinars, and a guest editorial from exports minister Gareth Thomas as part of International Trade Week.
The big picture: A report in Politico this week suggested that the long-awaited EU-Mercosur trade deal could finally be reached – by sidestepping the objections of France.
The agreement could be concluded at a summit of Latin American nations in Uruguay at the start of next month, a source told the publication. In-person talks on the remaining issues are planned for the last week of November. Brazil has been pushing for the conclusion of the deal while it still holds the presidency of the Group of 20 (G20), which it loses at the end of November.
French farmers have long opposed the deal, which would open up the EU market to imports of Latin American food products, and protested again this week in Brussels to express their anger over the plans, Reuters reports.
It’s not only French farmers – its prime minister is less than impressed by the bid to push the deal through. Michel Barnier said following a meeting with EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen:
“I told the president that France cannot and will not accept this deal under its current terms.”
Good week/bad week: A good week for the UK’s prospects on US trade, if former Bank of England economist Andy Haldane is to be believed. He told the Guardian that the return of Republican president Donald Trump gives the country an opportunity to strike a trade deal with the US while continuing to draw closer to the EU.
Bloomberg analysis, meanwhile, found that Trump’s plans for a 20% tariff on all goods entering the US would be “manageable” for the UK.
Less positively, the same tariffs appear poised to start tit-for-tat measures in North America, where Mexican economy minister Marcelo Ebrard said this week that his country could be forced to respond with its own tariffs if the US puts duties on its goods.
Even more significantly, the FT reports that officials in Beijing are mulling the Chinese response to Trump’s plans – which could spark a renewed trade war between the world’s two largest economies.
The week in customs: Monday’s Customs Corner round-up piece drew together updates on the New Computerised Transit System Phase 5 (NCTS5), an upcoming safety and security (S&S) declaration change and the launch of a new system related to the EU’s regulation on deforestation. Chartered Institute members can read the full piece here.
How’s stat: Zero – the number of rival candidates facing World Trade Organization (WTO) director general Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala in her bid to secure re-election before the return of US president-elect Donald Trump, with whom she is unlikely to see eye-to-eye.
Quote of the week: “If you impose tariffs, we’re going to have to impose tariffs.”
Mexican economy minister Marcelo Ebrard on his country’s plans to respond to Trump’s proposed 20% flat tariff on all imports into the US.
What else we covered this week: An editorial from exports minister Gareth Thomas explored the week’s International Trade Week events, as well as initiatives from the government to drive greater SME exports.
Our public webinar on the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) explored the options for firms looking to boost their trade with member nations, with Chartered Institute trade deal expert Garima Srivastava saying that new rules on cumulation are a “gamechanger”.
This week also included a report on the most recent Lunchtime Learning session, where Chartered Institute academy education delivery team lead Ray Burgin addressed some of the major issues firms face complying with export controls. Chartered Institute members can read that one here.
True facts: On this day 23 years ago, Microsoft released its first video game console: the Xbox. By 2006, it had sold 24m units around the world. The global gaming market was valued at US$294.55bn in 2022.