This week saw interest rates frozen on both sides of the Atlantic in response to ongoing uncertainty around US tariffs, new post-Brexit trade figures – with one group contending that data is often skewed – and an announcement from HMRC that the final implementation of the Windsor framework is now set for 1 May.
The Daily Update’s regular Customs Corner feature got a new live edition with a webinar on Tuesday (18 March) too, while a Chartered Institute expert also shared their know-how at this week’s International Food and Drink Event (IFE).
The big picture: Four years on from the UK’s formal departure from the EU, economists are still wrangling over Brexit’s impact on the country’s finances and trade with the bloc.
A report from right-leaning thinktank Policy Exchange released this week argues that “existing analysis of UK trade data since Brexit contains serious flaws” and that these flaws generate a “false impression of UK export challenges”.
It lists five issues, including the reclassification of advanced engineering goods exports as services exports, volume-based reporting which fails to consider high-value exports and global downturns in some prominent UK industries that lead stats to paint a more negative picture of UK-EU trade.
It goes on to suggest this could undermine the UK’s negotiating position when discussing the ‘reset’ of its relationship with the EU, ahead of potential Trade and Cooperating Agreement talks next year.
This comes as the British Chamber of Commerce’s director general, Shevaun Haviland, called on the UK’s government to be “more ambitious” in talks with the EU, saying that, while recent discussion have been moving in “the right direction”, more should be done to translate this into benefits for UK exporters.
A suggestion to realise improved trading conditions for UK exporters to the EU also came from the Food and Drink Federation this week. Authors of its latest Trade Snapshot advocated for a new sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) agreement which could “mitigate trade disruptions and enhance competitiveness”.
This follows findings that the UK’s food and drink exports to the bloc have fallen 34.1% since 2019.
Using export volume over value, it notes that, between 2020 and 2024, UK food exports to the EU were down 20% on 2015-2019 levels. Given that other major European economies such as Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands increased their average volumes over the same period, the report concluded that “the UK’s challenges aren’t part of a global trend but rather unique to the UK’s post-Brexit circumstances”.
To share your thoughts on moving goods post-Brexit and the future of the UK’s Single Trade Window, you can complete this survey. Responses will be shared with HMRC’s Joint Customs Consultative Committee.
Good week/bad week: A strong week for UK trade ties with South-East Asia and the Pacific.
UK ministers hosted a delegation from the Philippines earlier this week for Joint Economic and Trade Committee (JETCO) talks in London. JETCO aims to boost UK exports to the Philippines, which the government press release states is “one of the fastest growing economies in Asia”.
The release notes that the outcome of the meeting was positive, with the two nations set to pursue closer cooperation and increased trade, covering areas including infrastructure, renewable energy, agriculture and technology.
In particular, UK farmers could be set to benefit, as the lifting of an export ban on British poultry and beef is estimated to yield as much as £80m over the next five years.
A bad week for Indian trade, which underwent the sharpest contraction in exports for 20 months according to new data released this week.
International goods sales were 10.9% lower in February than the previous year, with low global oil prices held largely responsible, along with ongoing uncertainty around the introduction of more US tariffs.
Trump has been exerting pressure on India to buy more US goods, while pushing for a ‘grand deal’ with the notoriously protectionist nation, as covered in this week’s Trade Digest.
How’s stat? 4.5%. That’s the UK’s current interest rate, held by the Bank of England yesterday.
“The threat of tariffs” and “global uncertainty” were provided as reasons for not cutting the rate.
The same was true across the Pond as the Federal Reserve also held firm at 4.5% on Wednesday (19 March), while issuing a warning about the wider economic impact of tariffs.
US GDP estimates for the year have also been revised down from 2.1% growth in 2025 to 1.7%, while inflation is expected to rise to nearer 3% having hovered nearer the 2% mark in recent months.
Quote of the week: “When I was exporting goods five years ago, these [fourth-party logistics] 4PL channels were not available, and it was a real uphill task doing B2C in foreign markets. That’s no longer the case – there is now a real variety of distribution channels.”
Chartered Institute SPS expert Joseph Goldsworthy shared his top tips for food and drink exporters at this year’s IFE in London.
You can read our write-up of the event here and gain more industry insights into reaching new markets through the our recently released whitepaper on the topic.
The week in customs: HMRC announced that changes coming into force under the Windsor Framework originally slated for the end of the month will now come into effect on 1 May.
Under the Windsor Framework, firms will be able to move goods between Great Britian and Northern Ireland using simplified procedures providing they’re signed up to the UK Internal Market Scheme (UKIMS). The government is continuing to encourage businesses to sign up to the scheme as soon as possible.
A similar scheme is also available to simplify the customs requirements for moving parcels – the UK Carrier Scheme – which affected traders are also advised to sign up to.
What else we covered this week: We heard from attendees of the Chartered Institute’s MemberCon25. They praised this year’s annual gathering of members, trade professionals and industry experts for its great networking opportunities and varied panel sessions.
Our first Customs Corner Live webinar was held on Tuesday, with international trade and customs senior specialist Anna Doherty and HMRC officials answering your questions on a host of customs topics. You can watch the recording here, while members can sign up for the next instalment on 1 May.
There was also an update on the State of Freight in our semi-regular round-up of shipping news.
True facts: Heathrow Airport, one of the busiest in Europe, suspended operations on Friday (21 March) following a fire at a nearby electricity substation in Hayes.
It’s not just bad news for disappointed passengers – exports also suffer when the travel hub is down. The Observatory of Economic Complexity writes that Heathrow is the UK’s biggest export hub, and in 2024 saw £117bn in goods exported to worldwide destinations.
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