It was a major week for the UK’s economic direction, as chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered her latest economic policy alterations in the Spring Statement. There was also more US tariff turbulence as the country announced a new levy on imports of cars and car parts – though its trade policy could be proving an unlikely boon for Vietnam.
The big picture: This week’s Spring Statement drew reaction from a range of experts in our panel piece yesterday (27 March).
Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade director general, Marco Forgione, said that the announcement that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had cut its prediction for UK growth in 2025 from 2% to 1% was “disappointing”.
Improving the rate required renewed focus on trade reforms, he said:
“Amid debate about the best ways to stimulate economic growth, it is important that the government doubles down its efforts to ensure that upcoming strategies, such as the Trade Strategy, Small Business Strategy and Industrial Strategy, are smartly aligned and provide a steady and sustainable vision for business growth.”
Sylwia Nowak, meanwhile, global trade technology manager at Collins Aerospace, said “the collaboration between HMRC and US Customs and Border Protection on the customs digitalisation pilot involving the sharing of trusted trader credentials” was a particularly exciting feature of the statement.
Good week/bad week: Trump’s tariffs could be proving an unexpected boon for Vietnam, with major video game firm Nintendo looking to move production from China to the South East Asian nation to swerve the measures. There are concerns Vietnam itself could face tariffs, though so-called ‘golf diplomacy’ (and some major golfing investments in the country from the Trump Organization) could mitigate the risk, according to the BBC.
A less positive week for the US-Canada relationship, which in its previous form is “over” according to newly-minted Canadian prime minister Mark Carney. He said yesterday there would be a “broad renegotiation” of both trade and security agreements with the US, and that the time of “deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military co-operations” was done. Carney made the comments days after calling a snap election, with polling date set for 28 April.
How’s stat: 0.1% – that’s the unchanged Q4 2024 GDP figure for the UK after the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reviewed the numbers in stats put out this week. There are fears that US president Donald Trump’s tariffs hurt UK growth, particularly following the announcement of a 25% rate on auto imports yesterday.
Quote of the week: “It is not wise to fall into the temptation of reprisals that become a vicious circle in which everyone loses.”
Italian PM, Giorgia Meloni, on the risks of trade war with the US, in remarks to Italy’s parliament on Tuesday. Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission president, has since expressed the EU’s disappointment at the imposition of auto tariffs.
The week in customs: Our regular member-exclusive Customs Corner feature reviewed the first Customs Corner Live webinar, held last week, as well as upcoming changes to the Windsor Framework and an update on the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in Europe.
We also looked at the legal underpinning of the ‘big three’ of customs – classification, origin and valuation – in our latest Trade Explained feature.
Other stories we covered this week: This week’s Commodity in Focus feature turned the spotlight on oil, as leaked White House messages gave an insight into the US’ fears of a spike in prices.
A Chartered Institute webinar on Trump’s tariffs saw trade experts warn exporters and importers to “buckle up” for further disruption, with concerns voiced even for firms who do not directly trade with the US. You can read a full write-up of the event here.
Agreements between the US and both Russia and Ukraine to halt hostilities in the Black Sea could pave the way for the movement of grain through the region. The US is also set to relieve sanctions on Russia’s agricultural sector as part of the deal.
True facts: Constantinople was renamed Istanbul 95 years ago today. The city is the prime destination for a tourism industry which brought US$61.1bn into Turkey last year.
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