Today (28 April), Canadian voters will go to the polls, from the tiny province of Prince Edward Island to the manufacturing powerhouse of Ontario and the westernmost region of British Columbia.
The global economy isn’t the only thing tariffs have changed. US president Donald Trump’s measures have fundamentally upended what was supposed to be a safe, solid election campaign for Canada’s Conservatives.
Instead, Canada’s ruling Liberal Party is in pole position to win again using a patriotic message of defending Canadian sovereignty from Trump’s tariffs.
Coronation
The election was originally supposed to be a coronation. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre – a Trump-supporting 45-year-old with a vision of low-tax and small government – was supposed to walk to victory.
Before the incumbent Liberal prime minister, former wunderkind Justin Trudeau, stepped down, the question was whether or not the Liberals would have enough seats to form the Official Opposition, and whether it would be the left-wing New Democratic Party or the French separatist Bloc Québécois to overtake them.
Poilievre’s Tories were projected to win as many as 238 of the 338 seats in Parliament, a once-in-a-generational haul.
Tariffs
However, two things changed.
First, the politically toxic Trudeau was replaced as Liberal Party leader by Mark Carney, a former Bank of England and Bank of Canada governor.
Secondly, the Trump White House began its war of words (and tariffs) with its otherwise friendly northern neighbour.
Even as recently as Thursday (24 April), the official stance from the White House is that Canada, a sovereign nation, should join the US as the 51st state.
Karoline Leavitt, the actual White House spokesperson, said last Wednesday (16 April) that Trump "believes that Canadians would benefit greatly from becoming the 51st state of the United States of America". These comments were made during a televised press conference, to multiple reporters.
These two factors have meant that Poilievre’s Conservatives have lost this commanding lead to Carney’s Liberals, while also seeing his personal ratings slide.
Carney’s revival
Carney has made gains through positioning himself both as a fresh start from Trudeau, and as a foil to Trump.
He promised to stand up to Trump on tariffs, calling him a bully. Carney also killed off the consumer carbon tax on his first day as PM, something that opposition groups had been expected to use against the Liberals in the campaign.
“Our old relationship with the US is over,” he said in one of his campaign videos.
“While this is a tragedy, this is also a new reality.”
The Liberal manifesto also makes heavy reference to allies in Europe, Asia and elsewhere, while promising to “diversify” important sectors like defence and food away from the US.
In the final leadership debates, Carney accused the US president of trying to “fundamentally change the world economy” and “break” Canada.
"We've moved on from dollar-for-dollar tariffs," Carney added.
Conservatives return
A Poilievre win would give Trump a valuable ally north of the border, and another possible international partner in a world that is increasingly turning against the Republican president.
A former junior minister under former Conservative PM Stephen Harper, Poilievre has described himself as a “true Conservative” and is generally right wing on both social and economic issues.
Sui Sui, a professor at the Ted Rogers School of Management at Toronto Metropolitan University, said that Poilievre has positioned himself as a “strong negotiator” who was “capable of securing a favourable deal for Canada”.
“He knows exactly what Trump wants, so he’s probably very likely to negotiate a short-term pause on tariffs.”
The Conservative Party’s platform provides a vision of a low-tax, anti-environmentalism future for the Canadian economy.
Among his pledges are a promise to green-light all federal permits for critical minerals project in the ‘Ring of Fire’ region, an energy corridor, and a 15% cut in federal income tax.
However, despite distancing himself from Trump during the campaign and promising to “defend Canada’s sovereignty”, the Tory leader has been dogged by his previous support for the US president.
Carney and his allies often attempt to tie Poilievre to Trump. The most recent attack accused him of having “no plan” for dealing with the American president.
All to play for
Despite his struggles with the White House, the Canadian Conservative is still within striking distance.
The Liberals appear to have stabilised their lead after weeks of progress. According to the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC), Liberals lead in most provinces, only trailing in the right-leaning plains states and leading in the three largest provinces, British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec.
As it stands, Carney is projected to pick up enough seats for a majority government (he would need at least 172). He is also on track to win the popular vote, the first time for a Liberal PM since Trudeau’s first victory in 2015.
The 2021 election left Trudeau with 160, forcing the party into a minority government with a supply and confidence agreement with the New Democratic Party (NDP).
Even a minor polling error would put him close to winning outright, although rumours persist that the Conservative leader is at risk in his constituency of Carleton, on the outskirts of the Canadian capital.
Eric Grenier, an election analyst at CBC, said there had a been a “tightening of some kind” over the last few days, but still said that the Liberals held a lead. YouGov’s latest polling predicts a gain of 25 seats and a 21-seat majority for Carney.
Liberal expectations remain high. Liberals are even hoping for a “red ripple” in the Conservative stronghold of Alberta, eyeing up as many as four seats.
In the event of a hung parliament, the left-wing NDP would likely play kingmakers, although they are facing a difficult night. Even NDP leader Jagmeet Singh is not guaranteed to win his seat.
Tory downfall?
Poilievre’s natural dislike of the NDP means that the Conservative Party’s only viable partner would be the Bloc Québécois (QB). As it stands, the far-right People’s Party are not predicted to pick up a seat.
Tomorrow morning will see either a new, friendly neighbour for Trump to work with, or another Liberal government that has promised to “stand-up” to its one-time ally.
A Liberal re-election would be the first indication that Trump’s trade policy has altered world politics just as dramatically as the global economy.
Governments around the world facing dimming re-election prospects – in Australia, Spain and Portugal – could suddenly find the prospect of standing up to Trump a lot more appealing, while right-wing parties that previously supported the Republican president might find themselves in a difficult situation.
As centrist parties around the world face difficult questions posed by a middling economy and rising far-right populists, could Canada’s election prove to be a possible answer?
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