2025 will be the first full year of the now not-so-new UK government. It’s shaping up to be a busy one for it as it implements new policy frameworks whilst also navigating the ever-changing landscape of the global political arena.
Seeking the summit
The first half of 2025 brings a UK-EU summit, which the government hopes will be a timely opportunity to ‘reset’ the relationship with the UK’s largest trading partner.
Resetting often implies that a situation will return exactly to the way it was. Whilst few are so naïve as to believe that this will happen, the international trade community is still watching with bated breath in the hopes that there is a middle path available for the lowering of trade barriers.
The review of the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation (TCA) Agreement is due to begin in May 2026, and there are options available for progress to be made beforehand, particularly as there is some doubt as to the differing intentions from both sides on their approaches to the review.
With various EU measures affecting UK trading businesses, there is a need for an effective balance to ensure that UK exporters continue to reap the benefits of trading with both Northern Ireland and EU countries. Events like the summit can help to bridge any relational gaps preventing the progression of future negotiations.
Trade in triplicate
Spring-summer is due to bring the publication of the government’s Industrial Strategy, Trade Strategy and Small Business Strategy Command Paper.
The introduction of these strategies, in short succession, increases the likelihood that they will be better aligned when it comes to overlapping priorities for the trade community. Each is due to set a long-term vision and provide greater certainty for the future of industry, as well as to encourage investment.
A formal consultation has been held already on the Industrial Strategy, while a more informal call for evidence is currently out on the Trade Strategy. Consultation on the Small Business Strategy is yet to be announced. The Chartered Institute’s response to the government’s Industrial Strategy green paper can be read here.
It is encouraging to know that digital trade will be a key consideration within these strategies, particularly with a recent House of Lords International Agreements Committee report advocating that the government’s forthcoming trade strategy is a particular opportunity to develop ‘a targeted approach to key issues relating to data and digital trade’. You can read the Chartered Institute’s inputs to the report here.
In the background of this triple strategic front is, of course, the Employment Rights Bill, currently in its Commons Committee Stage in Parliament. The bill seeks to "raise the floor of employment rights, giving the British public the prosperity, security and dignity that everyone in Britain needs and deserves at work.” However, various representative bodies have already raised concerns, with many small businesses (including exporters) keeping a watchful eye over the potential impact the bill will have on employment costs. Some have warned that layoffs will be needed this year if changes are not made.
Parliamentary promise
These policies are certain to have effective scrutiny in the form of parliamentary accountability, with the Business and Trade Committee (a parliamentary body which scrutinises the policy, spending and administration of the Department for Business and Trade) already underway with an inquiry into the Employment Rights Bill. Under the leadership of chair Liam Byrne MP (LAB, Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North), most MPs on the Committee are newly elected and bring fresh perspectives.
Additionally, 2025 dawns with another parliamentary body considering trade issues. The newly-formed International Trade and Investment All-Party Parliamentary Group, led by chair Mike Reader MP (LAB, Northampton South) and co-chair Lord Ben Houchen (Mayor of Tees Valley), provides space for parliamentary advocates to engage with key trade stakeholders to work together on empowering businesses to engage with trusted and transparent international trade. The overarching goal of all of this is to achieve long-term economic growth.
With the Chartered Institute and NorthPoint Strategy acting as the co-secretariats of the group, the APPG is soon to set out its plans for the year ahead.
Regulatory ramifications
On what has been a drawn-out timeline for the Border Target Operating Model (BTOM), the next changes are due to come into force on 31 January. This is the requirement for Safety and Security declarations (also known as entry summary declarations) for EU imports.
The Border Target Operating Model (BTOM) is a strategic framework introduced by the UK government to manage and streamline border controls post-Brexit. It outlines a new approach to the importation of goods into the UK, focusing on ensuring security, safety and efficiency while minimising disruption to trade. Advice on these changes can be found at the Chartered Institute’s BTOM Compliance Toolkit.
Regulatory impacts that came into force before Christmas are also continuing to hit businesses hard in the new year. The EU’s General Product Safety Regulation (GPSR) measures are one such example, with new EU product safety rules meaning that there are new requirements for Great British businesses which are selling to either the EU or Northern Ireland, including a requirement for a ‘responsible person’ or compliance agent. The Chartered Institute has already written to the Minister for Services, Small Businesses and Exports on this topic.
Leadership lurches
All these domestic changes sit within a wider geopolitical context. On 20 January Donald Trump will be inaugurated as president of the United States, with all the potential implications that brings for the UK in terms of potential tariffs.
And, only yesterday, prime minister Justin Trudeau of Canada, one of the world’s largest trading nations, announced his resignation. He will stay in power until his party has chosen a successor, ahead of the country’s general election later this year (on or before 20 October).
While 2024 was certainly a bumper year of elections, there are several elections for trade buffs to be watching closely in 2025 – including Australian parliamentary elections and the German Bundestag election on 23 February. The German elections are particularly important given there are hopes that Germany will take on a more significant role in European security after their election.
The Council of the European Union is also under new leadership, with Poland taking the reins of the presidency last week. The focus appears to be ensuring economic security and avoiding the disastrous consequences of a potential trade war.
The UK will need to navigate all these relationships very carefully in the year ahead, in addition to relationships which the UK hope will bring forth fruit in terms of potential new trade deals – including the Gulf Cooperation Council, India, Israel, South Korea, Switzerland and Turkey.
Adamant advocacy
As we enter this new year, full of many uncertainties, the international trade community can rely on one certainty: the Chartered Institute will always seek to ensure that the voice of the community is heard and that effective policy solutions are created, in conjunction with government, to trade barriers.
Whether we do this through direct communication with relevant policymakers, or through our involvement in bodies such as the E-Commerce Trade Commission and the various government-industry forums we sit on, your voice will always be represented.
If you have any questions or thoughts, please do get in touch with the UK public affairs team at publicaffairs@export.org.uk.
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