Despite concerns around rising protectionism, several end-of-year trade reports have found that global goods trade posted steady growth in 2024.
The WTO’s Goods Trade Barometer indicated that goods trade continued to rise in Q4, while the UN’s Global Trade Update also reported a “steady” 2% year-on-year rise in the trade of goods.
Both reports note “uncertainty” around growth in 2025 in anticipation of “shifts in trade policy”, with the ramifications of possible US tariff rises under incoming president Donald Trump a threat to future growth.
Steady rise
The WTO’s quarterly Goods Trade Barometer reading was 102.7 – anything above 100 indicates an increase in trade volume and anything below 100 indicating a contraction.
The UN’s figures, meanwhile, found that global trade is poised to hit an “all-time high” of US$33trn in 2024, up $1tn compared to last year, with goods trade rising 2%.
Mixed figures
The WTO wrote that all metrics “remain on or above trend with the except for the electronic components index”, which finished the year at 95.4.
Export orders and raw materials reached 100.5, while air freight (102.9), automotive products (104.0) and container shipping (105.8) were recorded as “firmly above trend”.
However, the UN report flagged that overall growth in trade was driven largely by services, which rose 7% in 2024. Average overall growth in trade for 2024 reached 3.3%.
Regional takeaways
The WTO annual stats reflect difficulties for EU goods trade, with reduced export and import figures “weighing global trade growth”.
However, factoring in “robust growth” in services trade, the UN report painted a better picture for the EU, with both imports and exports expected to increase this year.
The UN report also noted a stronger year for developed countries, with overall export increases of 2%. Japan was also highlighted for impressive services exports of 13%.
By contrast, developing nations struggled with an export increase of just 1% this year. East Asia (1%) and India (2%) posted smaller export figures than expected, although the report notes that “trade remained positive on an annual basis”.
According to the UN, China’s export engine stalled in Q3, with goods exports falling 2%. Services still posted strong growth of 9%, also totalling 9% for the year.
Trump threats
The possibility of president-elect Trump fulfilling his election pledge to introduce wide-ranging tariffs – up to 20% on all imports and 60% on Chinese imports – has “clouded” the outlook for 2025, the UN report states.
“Such measures risk triggering retaliation and ripple effects, affecting industries and economies along entire supply chains. Even the mere threat of tariffs creates unpredictability, weakening trade, investment and economic growth.”
It goes on to note that countries with a high trade surplus with the US are most at risk, highlighting the vulnerability of China (about $280bn trade surplus), India ($45n), the EU ($205bn) and Vietnam ($105bn).
