As COP29 draws to a close in Baku, Azerbaijan, we review some of the most important talking points from the world’s largest climate conference.
UK prime minister Sir Keir Starmer’s new emission targets received a broadly positive response and deals were struck to support a carbon market and support decarbonised shipping.
However, questions linger over the purpose and future of the conference, following another year in which fossil fuel interests exacted outside influence over proceedings.
UN carbon market
A “breakthrough” in agreeing standards for a UN carbon market has also generated backlash among campaigners, who felt the agreement was rushed without enough oversight.
Early in the conference, the Azerbaijan presidency announced the agreement of two key standards which would underpin a shared UN carbon market, which all signatories to the Paris Agreement could participate in.
The agreement’s lead negotiator, Yalchin Rafiyev, hailed the development:
“A game-changing tool to direct resources to the developing world and help us save up to US$250bn a year when implementing our climate plans.”
Under article 6 of the Paris Agreement, it was agreed that a country could transfer credits earned through the reduction of their emissions to developing nations.
Two mechanisms exist to facilitate this transfer: bilateral agreements between countries (article 6.2), which are already operational, and a UN carbon market (article 6.4), which has never been agreed.
However, some campaigners are frustrated that a contention point of negotiation has been “gavel[ed] through” without sufficient scrutiny.
SustainableViews notes that concerns were raised about the agreement not addressing “reversal risk” – that carbon transferred is then re-released into the atmosphere.
Shipping agreement
Over 50 firms from the world of maritime shipping signed an agreement to push for greater action on zero-emission fuel standards, along with greater investment.
The agreement calls on signatories to prioritise hydrogen fuels in particular, in order to limit emissions in the sector. This supports the industry’s decarbonisation targets to derive at least 5% of energy used in shipping from near-zero emissions sources by 2030.
The agreement could put pressure on the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to adopt these measures as part of a decision it must make next year on regulating greenhouse gas emissions and creating a carbon pricing mechanism.
Meaningful progress?
The shipping agreement’s emissions target is less ambitious than those set for other high-emission sectors, such as electricity, with sustainability experts also highlighting that shipping is often overlooked by governments when setting their climate targets.
In a joint statement, Transport and Environment shipping policy manager Jacob Armstrong and Opportunity Green legal officer Isabela Keuschnigg noted that Starmer’s “ambitious” target of cutting UK emissions to 81% of 1990 levels by 2035 excludes international shipping and aviation.
They highlighted the historic omission of the sector’s carbon footprint from such targets, with industry representatives going so far as to argue that they are exempt from Paris Agreement’s objectives:
“The international nature of large chunks of the shipping and aviation sectors has given states an alibi for not accounting for the climate impacts of these polluters in national plans…
“Allow[ing] countries to report shipping and aviation pollution separately from their other emissions, [is] to the detriment of robust climate accounting.”
The authors went on to write that by not addressing this, the UK had “missed a critical opportunity for bold climate leadership”.
Absent leadership?
Throughout the conference, concerns were raised about the commitment of global leaders to climate action and the Paris Agreement target to limit global warming to just 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Ahead of the conference, the BBC reported that the EU’s Climate Service announced that 2024 was set to be the first year in which global average temperatures exceed the 1.5°C target.
In addition to the election of former US president Donald Trump, who referred to climate change as a ‘hoax’ and pulled the US out of the Paris Agreement during his first presidency, fellow climate-skeptic Argentinian president Javier Milei withdrew his country’s negotiators three days into the conference.
Argentina’s undersecretary for the environment, Ana Lamas, told the Guardian that the 80 Argentinian representatives present had been recalled by the foreign office, but added that instructions only applied to COP29, not the Paris Agreement.
France also withdrew its negotiators, following criticism from host nation Azerbaijan. The absence of French president Emmanuel Macron and environment minister Agnès Pannier-Runacher, meant that the conference also began with no senior French representatives.
Other notable absences included US president Joe Biden, German chancellor Olaf Scholz and EU commissioner Ursula von der Leyen – limiting senior representation from some of the world’s largest economies in a year when talks are focused on climate finance.
Fossil fuel fervour
In recent years the conference has become mired in controversy surrounding its host nations’ support of fossil fuels and this year was no exception.
The BBC reported on Tuesday (12 November) that Azerbaijan's president Ilham Aliyev praised fossil fuels as “a gift from God” and criticised leaders that had highlighted the country’s substantial reserves.
This followed footage of the conference’s chief executive, Elnur Soltanov, promising to facilitate oil and gas deals for a fictious sponsor firm being published ahead of the event.
The Guardian also highlighted a report by Kick Big Polluters Out, which found that 1,773 lobbyists from fossil fuel industries were given access to the conference. This is over 50% more than the representation afforded the 10 most climate-vulnerable nations, which had a combined total of 1,033 delegates.
Former US vice president and climate campaigner, Al Gore, said that fossil fuel lobbyists “have seized control of the COP process”, leading to a lack of progress on COP28’s agreement to transition away from fossil fuels.
