A familiar face returned to European politics yesterday (5 September), as French president Emmanuel Macron appointed former chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier to be prime minister of France.
France has been in political turmoil since Macron called snap parliamentary elections, resulting in a narrow and unexpected win for a left-wing alliance, the New Popular Front (NPF). Macron’s ruling centrist coalition came second, ahead of the far-right National Rally (RN).
“We’ll need to listen a lot and show respect, between the government and parliament, and with all political forces,” said Barnier, referring to the future battle to maintain support in France’s parliament from different wings of the house.
Faction politics
Barnier, a 73-year-old veteran of French politics, does not belong to any of the main three factions, instead standing for the small right-wing Republican party.
RN has welcomed his appointment, while NPF has vowed to back no-confidence motions against him.
Marine le Pen, RN’s presidential candidate, has said that her party would not join the government, however, and party figures have made it clear that support is conditional and vote-by-vote.
While there is no requirement for a confidence vote affirming his position, Barnier will likely face several such votes over the coming months.
Stability
"Arguably before his run for the nomination for the Republicans in the Presidential elections, Barnier was probably better known in the UK than his native France due to his role as the EU's Brexit negotiator," said Fergus McReynolds, head of international at the Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade.
"That said, he is seen as an accomplished politician and a sturdy pair of hands. The proof of the pudding will be his ability not just to build a coalition but to maintain it. "
Mujtaba Rahman, analyst at Eurasia Group, told the FT that the decision was a positive one for financial markets:
“He’s a safe pair of hands known to market participants, known to Europe, and the domestic political elite within France.”
European Commission (EC) president, Ursula von der Leyen, also welcomed the decision on Twitter/X:
“Barnier has the interests of Europe and France at heart, as his long experience demonstrates.”
An old ‘foe’ returns
The appointment of a centre-right politician with strong Gaulist links represents a positive signal both for Ukraine and for the EU. The RN, as well as several parties in the NPF alliance, are deeply sceptical of both.
As former Brexit lead negotiator, Barnier became a key figure in the UK’s exit from the bloc.
Some staunch Brexiters, including former Conservative MPs Jacob Rees-Mogg and Steve Baker, gave a grudging measure of respect to Barnier’s appointment, while others, such as Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, said the move would likely push the UK closer to the EU.
UK-role
A UK government spokesman wished Barnier “all the best in his new role”.
“The UK enjoys a strong relationship with France … We are committed to working collaboratively on shared priorities, from tackling illegal migration to supporting Ukraine.”
Starmer has been seeking to mend ties and to build closer relations with Europe, with ideas such as an agreement on veterinary inspections and other customs issues being mooted.
Sébastien Maillard, an associate fellow at the Chatham House foreign policy think tank, told Politico that Macron would likely keep charge of foreign affairs, but that Barnier’s appointment was still a positive one for Starmer’s agenda.
"He will be welcoming in the change of tone and attitude [from Starmer's government toward Europe] and will think there is room for a better relationship regarding security and defence ... and perhaps migration.”
An Anglo-French summit is expected to be held in 2025.