Ireland’s ruling political parties look set to return to government following an election that has bucked the worldwide trend of incumbent parties getting voted out of office.
With less than a dozen seats left to complete their count, following voting on Friday (29 November), the centrist Fianna Fáil has so far won 43 seats in the Dáil Éireann, Ireland’s lower house, with their fellow centrists Fine Gael and left-wing opposition Sinn Féin tied on 36 seats each.
This would put Fianna Fáil up five seats on its previous result, while the other two parties will have gained and lost one seat respectively, although results are still expected to come in later this afternoon.
‘Historic’ coalition repeat
If it holds, the result largely confirms the status quo, with neither of Ireland’s two centre parties in a position to form a government on their own.
After the 2020 general election, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael went into a ‘historic’ coalition agreement where they held the position of Taoiseach (Ireland’s equivalent of a prime minister) on a rotating basis.
The incumbent Taoiseach, Simon Harris of Fine Gael, called the snap election with a poll lead but looks to have squandered this after a series of campaign missteps.
More results
Sinn Fein, a left-wing party that seeks a united Ireland, fell back from their first-place finish in 2020.
In contrast, the centre-left parties Labour and Social Democrats both made gains while the Green Party stumbled from 12 to only a single seat. The right-wing Independent Ireland also gained a seat, increasing their representation to four.
The Green Party lost a number of junior ministers as well as culture minister Catherine Martin, capping off a poor night for the party.
Minister for health Stephen Donnelly also lost his seat in the constituency of Wicklow, representing a poor result for Fianna Fáil amidst an otherwise successful night for the party.
Forming the next government
With the election mostly over, attention now turns to who could form the next government.
Micheál Martin, the leader of Fianna Fáil, said there was “very little point” in discussing the next government until the results were finalised.
“I think the sensible thing is to await the completion of all counts,” he added.
“We’ll let the dust settle and savour the moment. We’ll then be in a position over the next couple of days to assess the landscape, devise our strategies.”
Sinn Fein leader, Mary Lou McDonald, insisted that her party had “altered the political landscape” and would look to enter government.
Partners
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have already ruled out working with Sinn Fein, but will not be able to rely on their former coalition partner Green Party after its poor night.
As it stands, Fianna Fáil are expected to have around 48 seats, ten more than their nearest rival, but are well short of the support to go it alone and will almost certainly have to seek support from smaller parties.
The Labour Party leader, Ivana Bacik, said she would speak first to her fellow left-wing party, the Social Democrats, before speaking to the two centrist parties about forming a government.
Paul Cunningham, RTÉ's political correspondent, wrote that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael remain in the “driving seat to form the next government as, it's expected, they'll jointly hold around 86 seats [in parliament] - just shy of a majority in the expanded 174-seat chamber”.
The question for the smaller parties is now, he added:
“What price would they demand from Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael in return for their support?”