Ahead of Donald Trump’s second inauguration today (20 January), the Daily Update reviews the latest comments from international politicians, business leaders and the public as they anticipate his return to the White House.
Starmer eyes deal
UK prime minister Sir Keir Starmer has convened a “mini-cabinet” of senior ministers to step up efforts towards securing a US-UK trade deal, the Telegraph reports.
Yesterday, Starmer said that he and Trump had discussed “the need to deepen and invest in the trans-Atlantic relationship”.
“We will continue to build upon the unshakeable foundations of our historic alliance as we tackle together the global challenges we face and take our partnership to the next level, focused on shared opportunities ahead for growth.”
The cabinet, which includes chancellor Rachel Reeves, foreign secretary David Lammy and business secretary Jonathan Reynolds, has been meeting since the end of last year.
It also includes national security adviser Jonathan Powell, the architect of the controversial deal to cede sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, which has caused consternation among US leaders, who believe the deal could tip military strength in the region towards China.
Pro-Beijing sympathies are an accusation also been levied at the UK’s pick for ambassador to the US, Peter Mandelson, who was given the role in December.
Mandelson’s manoeuvres
On Sunday, chief secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones, praised Mandelson to Laura Kuenssberg as “brilliant” and said he expected that the former Blairite-era adviser would “form a very strong partnership with the new administration”.
This follows a shaky start, in which one Trump adviser referred to Mandelson as an “absolute moron”, a response suspected to have stemmed from his 2019 comments referring to Trump as a "danger to the world" and "little short of a white nationalist".
Ahead of his appointment to the role in December, Mandelson also told Kuenssberg that he was “more in favour of a new relationship rather than a special one” with the US.
However, he’s reversed this sentiment in the run-up to today’s inauguration, writing in a Fox News op-ed that he wants to “make our alliance with the US great again”.
In the piece, he created parallels between his success during the Blairite era, “having been at the core of three winning UK election campaigns”, and what he praised as “Trump’s great skill as a political campaigner”.
He also invoked the “special relationship” as he wrote of “three areas of major potential for expanded partnership” between the two countries: economic growth, national security and foreign policy realism.
UK deal possible?
Jones also said yesterday that Trump will want to do a deal with the UK.
"Donald Trump is well-known for wanting to do a good deal - I think there are plenty of good deals for us to do together.
"There are definitely opportunities to deepen our trading relationships, not least in technology, science and research... and I think that's something that could be a positive outcome."
His comments echo the line given by the business and trade secretary Jonathan Reynolds last week, who also highlighted “opportunities for the UK”, including potential for collaboration in technology, digital trade and services, in an interview with Sky News.
Reynolds did note that, as a “globally-oriented” economy, “the danger to the UK is actually greater than some comparable countries”, but added that around the world all politicians working under a trade brief are wary of what Trump will do next.
“I think it’s going to be a challenging time for anyone who is responsible for trade in a big economy because of some of those pledges that were made in the campaign,” he said, referring to the 20% blanket tariffs on all imports and 60% Chinese rate proposed by Trump.
Differing public perceptions
A poll carried out by the European Council of Foreign Relations (ECFR) revealed strong consensus among the public that a second Trump presidency is a threat to a Western-led global order.
Europeans were described as “almost alone in mourning Trump’s election”, with only South Korea and the UK as alarmed.
The survey, which received responses from over 28,500 people from 24 countries, found that in countries outside Europe public perceptions of Trump were more positive, with a majority of respondents in those nations rating him as ‘good for American citizens’ and ‘good for my country’.
This was notably true among BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), often perceived as trying to counter the dominance of a US-led Western coalition on the world stage. As recently as November, Trump threatened BRICS nations with 100% tariffs if they attempted to challenge the US dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency.
Nevertheless, respondents from India, South Africa, China, Brazil, Russia, Turkey and Saudi Arabia believed Trump would be a force for global peace, suggesting he would end wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
The latter goal Trump claims to have already achieved, following his incoming administration’s involvement in the negotiation of the Isreal-Palestine ceasefire, which began yesterday (19 January).
EU-Mexico
After nine years of negotiations, the EU signed a trade deal with Mexico on Friday (17 January), an agreement designed to protect both parties from Trump’s trade threats.
The agreement will see Mexico reduce tariffs on European agri-goods, such as cheese, poultry, pork, pasta, jams, chocolate and wine, while Mexico will be able to export electric vehicles duty-free as long as 60% of their parts were produced in Mexico or the EU.
It follows, in addition to Trump’s flat 20% tariff threat on all imports, a 25% levy directed at neighbouring Mexico and Canada
Speaking to the FT, ExplainTrade director, Dmitry Grozoubinski, said that the threat of US tariffs had spurred greater cooperation between the two parties:
“As the Trump administration and its accompanying uncertainties loom, those determined to demonstrate stability, like Mexico and the EU, are suddenly finding compromises so as to have the ink dry on their deals before he starts flipping global tables.”
Auto pleas
The FT also reported last week that European carmakers have called for an urgent deal with the US to prevent a trade war.
Car industry body, Acea, wrote to the European Commission, Parliament and all 27 member states, urging that the bloc strikes a “grand bargain.”
The letter follows the 20% tariff threat levied by Trump during his election campaign and growing competition with China on electric vehicles (EVs) – of which 20% of European exports are US-bound.
Ola Källenius, Acea’s recently appointed president and the chief executive of Mercedes-Benz, said the situation necessitated a “strong sense of urgency” and urged EU leaders to “make a thorough analysis of what the other side needs to do”.
