It’s the day before chancellor Rachel Reeves’ potentially pivotal Autumn Budget, but beyond that there’s plenty going on that should be of interest to trade professionals.
US-Russia talks are ongoing over a possible Ukraine peace deal, Western governments are taking steps to protect their markets against cheap Chinese steel, and there’s a new government guarantee to strengthen UK critical mineral supply chains.
Ukraine peace talks
First, to Abu Dhabi, where Russian officials are meeting with US counterparts to discuss a draft peace plan for Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wrote on social media that the US had “the right approach” but, alongside European leaders, he is continuing to seek amendments.
UK prime minister Sir Keir Starmer is hosting a virtual meeting of the “coalition of the willing” – a group of European allies – later today. He said the group remains focused on achieving a “just and lasting peace” in Ukraine.
The FT reports, though, that the US proposal, which would give Russia sway over some of Europe’s defence arrangements, has “triggered a frantic European rearguard action” to ensure Ukraine has a stronger ability to defend itself under any deal. Concerns remain over the US “commitment to the Atlantic alliance”.
The BBC is reporting live updates on the US-Russia talks today.
Western steel alliance
The FT also reports efforts from Western governments to “build a joint defence” against cheap Chinese steel flooding the global market. Officials convened in Paris earlier this month for the OECD’s steel committee, where it was agreed that allies should work on “coordinated actions”.
John Drummond, a head of trade policy at the OECD, said last week that officials needed to better understand pressure points in the global supply of steel. Speaking at the Chartered Institute’s Import Export Show, he said “maybe there’s a kernel of a meeting of minds” regarding how to address concerns around Chinese overproduction.
US President Donald Trump spoke with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, by phone yesterday, and trade was among their points of discussion.
Budget build-up
Rachel Reeves’ pivotal budget is due tomorrow, and speculation continues to grow about what she will say and what the fallout will be.
The FT reports that currency traders are currently betting against the pound over fears that tax-raising measures could hurt the UK economy.
The Mirror hears that there could be major tax changes for sugary drinks like milkshakes and lattes, while leading supermarkets are also bracing for a big hit should they become liable to pay higher business rates.
Politico, meanwhile, reports that the defence industry is “still waiting” for details regarding the government’s previous pledges to hike spending in the sector.
The uncertainty around the budget is causing exasperation among retailers ahead of the significant Christmas shopping season, the FT reports, with consumer demand a victim of the timing of Reeves’ speech tomorrow.
Government updates
Beyond the budget, UK Export Finance has announced a new government guarantee to strengthen UK critical minerals supply chains.
Following the publication of the new strategy for precious metals last week, a new “Critical Goods Export Development Guarantee” will support supply chains for minerals such as beryllium, chromium, copper and uranium.
The Department for Business and Trade has also announced that it has extended the deadline for firms to express interest in participating in a pilot scheme for new digital trade corridors with Germany and France. Businesses now have until 5 December to apply.
Ilona Kawka, imports advisory practice lead at the Chartered Institute, recently described the pilot programme as a “great chance to join one of the next major innovations in UK trade, one that could save firm millions in costs and hours in administration”.
Also in the news
- UK ministers have backed a new £49bn proposal for a new runway at Heathrow that will run across the M25 despite fears the plan will make the airport more expensive, the FT reports
- AI could replace three million low-skilled jobs in the UK by 2035, new research published in the Guardian has found
- Falling cocoa prices should lead to cheaper chocolate goods by Easter, but haven’t come soon enough for Christmas, according to the Times
Yesterday in trade
- We bought you details from the UK’s launch of a new critical minerals strategy over the weekend
- Our director general, Marco Forgione, called the new strategy a “pivotal moment” as the UK continues to “diversify supply chains”
- A new service, MyCustomsInfo, was launched to help traders pay the correct amount of duties
You can read more about yesterday’s trade news here.
