Yesterday (26 March), UK chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered her 2025 Spring Statement.
In her economic update, she announced cuts to welfare spending, a boost to the defence budget and unveiled the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) forecast for the next few years.
Members of the international trade community - including several members of the Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade - responded to Reeves’ announcement by urging continued focus on the digitalisation of the UK border and development of a Single Trade Window (STW), ensuring trade is embedded in strategies designed to deliver growth and cautioning against further measures to that could strain the finances of small businesses.
Marco Forgione MCIEX, Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade, director general
The announcement in today’s Spring Statement that the OBR has cut the UK’s growth forecast for 2025 from 2% to 1% is a disappointing reflection on the current state of the economy, although the forecasts for upcoming years look more positive.
Amid debate about the best ways to stimulate economic growth, it is important that the government doubles down its efforts to ensure that upcoming strategies, such as the Trade Strategy, Small Business Strategy and Industrial Strategy, are smartly aligned and provide a steady and sustainable vision for business growth.
The OBR has additionally highlighted uncertainty relating to productivity and trade policy. A well-functioning, digital border is the vehicle by which continued growth flows into the UK, and it is therefore vital that efforts are continued towards digital solutions at the border to simplify processes. Our members look to the government to show leadership in developing comprehensive digitalisation of trade measures, such as the STW.
These considerations must come hand-in-hand with tactical negotiations with both the EU and the US on our future trade relationships, to protect our exporting community as much as possible from the effects of tariffs and misalignment of regulations. The chancellor was right yesterday to say that there are no ‘quick fixes’ when it comes to the economy, but now is the moment for the UK to take full advantage of the opportunity to ‘reset’ on multiple fronts, for the good of the business community which fuels its prosperity.
Sylwia Nowak MCIEX, Collins Aerospace, global trade technology manager
From a customs digitalisation perspective, I am mostly excited about the collaboration between HMRC and US Customs and Border Protection on the customs digitalisation pilot involving the sharing of trusted trader credentials. This pilot, which will utilise online identifiers and digital certificates, is expected not only to accelerate cross-border trade and enhance efficiency across UK–US supply chains, but also to promote high-quality standards within the customs intermediary sector.
I hope this initiative will also lead to the adoption of shared customs brokerage standards. In the US, customs agents must pass an official licensing exam to operate, whereas in the UK, there are currently no mandatory qualification requirements, only a voluntary standard has been proposed. In my view, the UK should move towards making such standards mandatory to align with our US counterparts and professionalise the sector.
I am also hopeful that this collaboration will be a success and help re-start the UK STW programme. The US government implemented Single Window through Automated Commercial Environment (ACE) and it’s a great success so far, so our border authorities should follow the suit as they collaborate with the US Customs and Border Protection.
Grace Thompson, Chartered Institute, UK public affairs lead
One of the most interesting aspects of yesterday’s Statement has been looking through the OBR’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook document and, specifically, the three possible approaches that the US may take on tariffs. The impact on UK GDP from these three scenarios, respectively, would be reductions of 0.2%, 0.6% or 1% in 2026-27.
More broadly, the OBR forecast also reflects that, while UK exports fell 2.2% in 2024, export levels are expected to recover in 2025 and average growth of 0.8% a year between 2024-2029. However, cumulative growth in UK export markets between 2024 and 2029 is still expected to be around 2 percentage points lower than anticipated last October, in line with weaker eurozone and US import growth. While this picture may seem bleak, the hit to UK export growth is part of a wider picture of global trade slowing from 3.4% in 2024 to 3.3%, on average, between 2025-2027.
We must continue to support small businesses in particular throughout the navigation of these complex scenarios. I think that many in the small business community were disappointed by a lack of acknowledgement of their economic contribution – and their struggles – in yesterday’s statement. The Small Business Strategy is an opportunity to intentionally engage in measures to bring small business exporters intentionally on the journey to growth.
Christian Pulman, AESSEAL, head of procurement
The world is evolving, yet it seems Reeves is not willing to adapt her fiscal rules in response. I know of several SME that had to close their doors earlier this year, with several facing the looming increase in costs that will hit UK businesses next month.
SMEs are the backbone of the UK’s manufacturing supply chains, and their survival directly influences the resilience of the UK economy. When businesses thrive, jobs are secured. This Spring Statement should have focused on providing the support necessary to keep these businesses afloat and ensure people remain employed in the process.
Edwin Morgan, UK Warehousing Association, policy and public affairs director
The buzzword of the Spring Statement was 'defence-industrial superpower', but this can't happen without a thriving warehousing sector.
Warehousing is a critical part of the economy. It's bigger than agriculture, it's bigger than car manufacturing, it's bigger than the arts and entertainment sector, and it underpins all supply chains. As an employer of over 400,000 people, the warehousing industry is being hit hard by higher national insurance. It's also set to be whacked with additional business rates, which seems like a punishment for the investment that's gone into modern warehouses.
Companies aren't much interested in playing the blame game, and the UK is being battered by external forces, but the government has to find space for growth. It's critical that they follow through on planning reform, so decisions on warehouses are made fairly and quickly.
Of course, government departments can be more efficient - they can take a leaf out of warehousing's book, which has led the way on automation - but we need more planning officers, and enough resources for the Valuation Office Agency to make sure the business rates system works properly.
Paul Johnson, Institute for Fiscal Studies, director
This was just about the smallest fiscal event Rachel Reeves could have managed in the context of her fiscal rules and the minor forecast downgrade presented to her by the OBR.
The fact that a fairly run-of-the-mill change to the forecast forced her to cut her spending plans reflects the tiny amount of headroom she chose to leave against her targets last October.
In today’s Spring Statement, departmental spending plans and, it seems, welfare policy have been fine-tuned to return to precisely the same amount of headroom that she had previously.
If you would like to share your views on the Spring Statement, or any other trade issue, please get in touch at editor@export.org.uk.
