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EU Flags

President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen has announced that she will seek another term in the role.

Speaking in Berlin yesterday (19 February), she said that she was taking a “conscious and well-considered decision” to run for a second term and was “grateful to the Christian Democratic Union [party] for nominating [her] as the top candidate for the EPP”.

The former German defence minister has served as leader of the bloc’s most powerful institution since 2019.

Second term plans

While launching the leadership bid, she also outlined her vision for a possible second term. She said that Europe must “adapt our competitiveness to new conditions, achieve our climate goals together with business [and] exploit the opportunities of AI”.

To support the drive towards the bloc’s economic goals, she has already commissioned European Central Bank president and former Italian prime minister Mario Draghi to write a report on the EU’s competitiveness along with proposals on how to improve it.

The move has been interpreted as an attempt to position her second term as economically focused, improving the bloc’s poor growth rates by boosting its single market.

Defence support

Speaking to the FT last week, she also laid out plans to subsidise the bloc’s arms production, supporting domestic manufacturing.

She described industry as the Commission’s “core business” and area of “competence” but noted that the defence market is very fragmented and requires greater consolidation.

Informed by Europe’s approach to Covid-19 vaccine production – supported by taxpayer funds and highly streamlined – she outlined her plans for consolidation.

This shift in focus is in part a response to Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine and the need to offer support to Ukraine and build defensive capacity.

When launching her campaign yesterday, she expressed her pride in the bloc for building its domestic energy production capacity over the past two years.

“Putin tried to bring us to our knees by blackmailing us with Russian oil and gas, but we stood up to him.

“Together we overcame the worst energy crisis in 40 years and, in parallel, massively expanded our energy independence.”

Party backing

Von der Leyen received the support of her national party, the German Christian Democratic Union party, whose leader, Friedrich Merz, said on Monday that the party “unanimously chose Ursula von der Leyen” to represent them and stay in the post, as reported by France 24.

Merz praised von der Leyen’s achievements during a difficult presidency marked by novel challenges.

“The fact that Europe stayed together in the difficult years [of Covid-19], that it was possible to simultaneously provide all member states with the necessary means to overcome this pandemic was to the credit of the commission [and its president,] Ursula von der Leyen.”

The CDU is strongly represented within the European People’s Party (EPP), a centre-right party which is expected to perform well in Europe’s June elections and remain the largest in the European Parliament.

Next steps

To secure the nomination von der Leyen will need the support of two other parties in the EPP, which includes the ruling parties from Sweden, Ireland, Greece and Lithuania.

If she were to win a vote at the EPP congress next month, she would then need to be approved by the bloc’s other 27 member states. The likely success of EPP at the polls this summer bolsters her chances.

IOE&IT perspective

The Institute of Export and International Trade’s (IOE&IT) director of EU and international affairs, Fergus McReynolds, believes that the necessary support is present.

Although he acknowledged that “there are still several hurdles to overcome before we’re talking about a second von der Leyen term”, he also said that “a seasoned politician of the Commission president’s calibre would be unlikely to throw their hat in the ring without significant support behind the scenes from EU capitals”.

Reflecting on her presidency so far, he added that her re-election could bode well for international trade.

“Von der Leyen’s trade policy aspirations in her first term were ambitious and it will be vital that the next Commission president is a strong supporter of open and fair trade and appoints a strong commissioner who can deliver in an increasingly tough geopolitical environment.”