The fate of incumbent European Commission (EC) president Ursula von der Leyen remains uncertain ahead of a crunch parliamentary vote tomorrow (18 July), as both politicians and analysts predict a ‘close’ decision.
Thursday at 1pm, the European Parliament will vote on whether to approve von der Leyen for a second term, which requires a majority in the 720-person chamber.
In her first election, von der Leyen relied on the ‘grand coalition’ of European People’s Party (EPP), Socialists & Democrats (S&D) and Renew to secure a narrow majority, only winning by seven votes.
This majority has been shaved as a result of Renew and S&D losing dozens of seats between them at the last European elections, while hard-right parties made modest gains. EPP and S&D remain in first and second place, but the liberal Renew fell to fifth.
No guarantees
Although on paper there remains enough support from these three parties, the risk of defections mean that the German politician is likely to seek support from a fourth or even fifth party to guarantee her re-election.
Fergus McReynolds, the Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade’s EU director said that it would be “close”, but that von der Leyen would receive enough support, with the Green and new hard-right parties holding the key to von der Leyen’s re-election:
“As it is a secret ballot there is no guarantee that all MEPs in the groups will vote for her.
“That said, I expect many pro-European Greens and some from the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) to vote to approve von der Leyen and that should be enough to get her over the magic number of 361 votes.”
"I am not a mathematician, but I think, with the three centre forces that are supporting Ursula von der Leyen and that form part of a package deal, we have the numbers," Pedro Lopez, spokesman for the EPP, said last week.
Split in the right
Yesterday morning, von der Leyen held a 50-minute session with the ECR. No statement was issued and the party is said to be undecided.
The ECR has 78 MEPs from 18 different parties and 20 countries. While a spokesman told Politico that Romanian, French and Polish representatives have already said they would not vote for von der Leyen, the Belgian and Czechian expressed their support for the president’s re-election bid to Euractiv.
Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni is said to be undecided, amid an intense lobbying campaign for a top commission role for Italy.
If she does not receive enough support, von der Leyen will not be given a second attempt and a new candidate will need to be selected within four weeks.
Speaker chosen
Yesterday, president of the European parliament, Roberta Metsola, was re-elected by a sizeable margin.
A member of the EPP, the Maltese politician won by 562 to 61 against her only opponent, Irene Montero of the Left party.
This is the largest tally ever received for a parliamentary president – who performs a similar role to the UK’s speaker of the house – and the tally suggests that Metsola received support from the greens, as well as the far-right.
However, McReynolds warns that, while the confirmation vote for Metsola suggests that the coalition of centre right, left and Renew held, she has also enjoyed wide support from all parts of parliament in the past:
“Von der Leyen is not as popular with the Parliament and expects her vote to be much closer.”