Update 7 November, 11:00
Vice president Kamala Harris gave her concession speech yesterday (6 November) at her alma mater Howard University.
In her speech she promised to help the president-elect transition to office. Incumbent president Joe Biden has already contacted Trump to work on the handover of power.
Trump is said to be planning his transition as high-profile Republicans and supporters jockey for position. No names have been confirmed but he has previously said that Tesla CEO Elon Musk and supporter Robert Kennedy Jr could be in line for senior positions.
Votes are still being counted in key races for the Senate and House of Representatives. Currently, Democrats lead in Nevada and Arizona senate races while trailing in Pennsylvania. Multiple house seats remain undecided.
Election watchers have predicted that the Republicans could retain a narrow lead in the House, giving Trump a 'trifecta', but caution that this could still change.
International reactions
World leaders have continued to react to the return of Trump.
Many Latin American leaders, such as Chile’s Gabriel Boric, Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Colombia’s Gustavo Petro, have previously been critical of Trump, but have extended their congratulations, nonetheless.
Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum has said there is “nothing to worry about” after Trump’s victory.
“We’re going to have good relations with the US government,” she told a press conference, although she has yet to have an official communication with Trump.
Foreign secretary David Lammy has sought to repair his relationship with the Republican president, having previously called Trump a “woman-hating, neo-Nazi sympathising sociopath” and a “racist”, while Sir Keir Starmer has stood by his foreign secretary to remain in post.
“We look forward to working with you and JD Vance in the years ahead”, Lammy said on X. formerly Twitter.
Update 6 November, 11:30
Former president Donald Trump declared victory early this morning (6 November) in the US presidential race.
The Republican former president has secured the minimum 270 electoral votes after winning the key swing states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Georgia. He is currently leading in the count in Michigan, Nevada and Arizona.
Several world leaders, including UK prime minister Sir Keir Starmer, French president Emmanuel Macron and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have already congratulated Trump on his victory.
Ongoing counts
The states of Alaska, Arizona, Michigan and Nevada are still counting, with several senate races and dozens of house seats still up in the air.
The Republicans have already retaken the Senate while control over the House of Representatives remains on a knife edge.
Trump is set to be the first convicted felon to be elected president, as well as the first president since Grover Cleveland to be elected to non-consecutive terms.
UK inflation
Attention is now turning to the realities of Trump’s tariff proposals.
Research published by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) found that Trump’s tariffs would hit the UK’s economic growth and possibly cause the Bank of England to raise interest rates.
Ahmet Kaya, a NIESR economist, told the Guardian “the UK is a small, open economy and would be one of the countries most affected”.
Marco Forgione, director general of the Chartered Institute of Export and International Trade, said:
“If you put a 20% universal tariff on goods entering the US, then it instantly becomes a very challenging market for us and there are absolutely concerns about the implications of such a move.
“It would seem likely that there would be a response from the UK government, and the truth is that nobody would win from getting involved in a tit-for-tat exchange of tariffs.”
Update 5 November, 10:00:
Today is polling day in the US.
From sea to shining sea, voters are heading to the polls to elect the president, senators and members of congress in an election that is expected to be the tightest for years.
Vice president Kamala Harris toured the crucial swing-state of Pennsylvania, holding a rally with singer Katy Perry, while former president Donald Trump closed his campaign in Michigan.
The first votes are already in, after a tiny New Hampshire town of Dixville Notch held its traditional midnight polling at the start of polling day. The residents split 3-3 between Harris and Trump.
Most analysts still regard the election as being very close. Forecaster Nate Silver’s final forecast had Harris winning in 50.015% of simulations, while SplitTicket’s version gave Harris a 53% chance of winning.
Veteran Nevada journalist Jon Ralston said that he believed that Harris would narrowly win the state on the basis of early voting trends, although only by less than half a percent point.
Preparation
Politico reports that European authorities and businesses are not expected to suffer if Trump repeals president Joe Biden’s landmark Inflation Reduction Act, which granted subsidies to companies investing in green technologies and manufacturing facilities.
Trump, meanwhile, has threatened to hit Mexico with tariffs if it does not stop migrants from entering the US.
Speaking at a rally in North Carolina, he said of newly elected Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum:
“I haven’t met her, and I’m going to inform her on day one or sooner, that if they don’t stop this onslaught of criminals and drugs coming into our country, I’m going to immediately impose a 25% tariff on everything they send into the [US].”
UK concerns
UK trade secretary Jonathan Reynolds told Politico that “any G7 trade minister like myself would be concerned about the talk of tariffs”.
While members of Trump’s team insist the increased rates would be a “bargaining chip” in negotiations, UK diplomats and civil servants are preparing for all eventualities.
Reynolds added that it would be “prudent and appropriate” to prepare for any trade conflict but did not state whether the Department for Business and Trade had prepared retaliatory measures.
Separately, health secretary Wes Streeting said that the Labour government would work with whoever the US voters choose.
“I think it’s fair to say that we may not be ideological bedfellows with President Trump, but if he’s returned as president of the [US], there will be a really good working relationship.”
Update 4 November, 10:00:
As the US presidential election comes down to the wire, both vice-president Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump are locked in a tight contest across all major swing states with only a couple of days left in the race.
The US dollar weakened in response to a ‘gold standard poll’ by J Ann Selzer, released over the weekend, which showed that Harris was unexpectedly competitive in Iowa.
Too close to call
While the Selzer poll has been accurate in the past – it picked up signs that Trump was outperforming other polls in 2016 and 2020 – most poll aggregators have placed the odds at a coin flip.
FiveThirtyEight, ElectoralVote and SplitTicket give the narrowest of edges to Harris. However, pollsters and analysts have stressed that even a minor deviation from the polls would give Trump a victory.
Trump’s tariffs
Meanwhile, a pair of recent research papers, including one published today, have found that Trump’s proposed tariffs on all goods being imported into the US would significantly hit the country’s economy and its green transition.
Research published last week by Dr Aurélien Saussay of the London School of Economics found that Trump’s plans would reduce US GDP by 0.65%, China’s by 0.69% and by 0.11% in the EU.
Additionally, a study from the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management found that the “protectionist trade policies” of Trump could harm manufacturing firms most. The study, led by associate professors Thorsten Martin and Clemens Otto, found that manufacturers could face higher costs on raw materials or other goods needed to make finished articles.
