Week commencing 14 April
17 April
New restrictions have been placed on US exports of semiconductors to China as part of the ongoing trade spat between the two nations.
The US government has placed new requirements on the export of Nvidia’s H20 chip, which is designed to offer AI capacity to the Chinese market in compliance with the previous set of US controls. The BBC reports that the government had advised the company that this change “will be in effect for the indefinite future”.
It follows the introduction of a range of export controls centred on AI-related tech under Joe Biden’s administration in January, which Nvidia then called “misguided”.
The company has announced that it is likely to take a US$5.5bn hit to its earnings as a result of the new restrictions.
Andy Bridges, Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade Academy trade and customs consultant, says that the new measures are “a prime example of how US export controls and new tariff regulations are not only affecting imports to the US, but also putting considerable pressure on US companies as well”.
“The hit that Nvidia are describing here is not an unexpected one in the AI and cyber industry. The new licensing rules in the US and counter-tariff action by China in particular are going to have a massive negative effect on most US industries.
“The microchip or AI industry is one where China excels in its own right, so it will not be so much of a burden for Chinese companies or indeed its government. This, again, just goes to show that when governments enter into a trade war, the outcome can have an adverse effect on the home nation, as well as those overseas.”
15 April
US vice-president JD Vance yesterday said that the White House is “working very hard” with Sir Keir Starmer’s British government on a trade deal.
Talking to UnHerd, he spoke of how president Donald Trump “loves” and “admires” the UK, Queen Elizabeth II and King Charles III.
“It is a very important relationship,” he said. “And he’s a businessman and has a number of important business relationships in [Britain].”
“I think there’s a good chance that, yes, we’ll come to a great agreement that’s in the best interest of both countries”.
The UK has been taking a “pragmatic approach” to Trump’s new tariff regime, but was nonetheless given the 10% baseline rate, as well as 25% duties for its steel and car exports to the US.
Vance also said that other European states were likely to reach agreements with the US, but noted that some – like Germany – have a less “reciprocal relationship” than the UK. In broader terms, he called on Europe to become more independent, including in defence.
“It’s not good for Europe to be the permanent security vassal of the United States,” he said.
Vance’s comments were made on the same day that a report in the Wall Street Journal claimed that US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent is prioritising the UK, Australia, South Korea, India and Japan as his top targets for US trade deals.
Yesterday was otherwise a relatively quiet day in the Trump tariff saga, though Politico reports that the White House is preparing the ground for investigations into new levies on semiconductor technologies and pharmaceuticals.
The longer-term effects of Trump’s ‘liberation day’ are also starting to trickle through, with a report in the FT today suggesting that UK consumers are looking to ‘buy British’ due to concern over the US’ trade policy.
Almost three quarters (71%) of respondents to a survey conducted by Opinium Research for Barclays said they wanted to support British companies by buying more goods made in the UK.
14 April
In the latest tariff climbdown, a notice shared by US Customs and Border Patrol on Friday (11 April) announced that laptops and smartphones would be exempted from the 125% reciprocal import tariff applied to goods from China.
US tech tariffs
Other technology, such as routers and chipmaking equipment, would also be spared higher rates.
The U-turn is a reprieve for major US tech companies such as Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia. The US stock market saw a partial rebound, as did European and Asian exchanges.
However, in a post on his social media site Truth Social yesterday, US president Donald Trump wrote that no countries will be “off the hook” for “unfair trade imbalances” with the US, “especially not China which, by far, treats us the worst!”.
He wrote that Friday’s announcement was not an “exception” for China, with laptops and smartphones still subject to the 20% tariffs levied on Chinese imports prior to 2 April’s ‘Liberation Day’.
US commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, also confirmed yesterday (13 April) that “a special focus-type of tariff” would come into effect for key technology.
Lutnick added that long-promised sector-specific tariffs on pharmaceutical products would also come into force.
Despite the amnesty on Chinese chipmaking equipment, all imports of the technology are set to be hit with new tariffs imminently, with Trump confirming that new duties on semiconductors will be announced in “the near future”.
Speaking to reporters on Air Force One, Trump said that semiconductor tariffs would “uncomplicate” production “from a lot of other companies… because we want to make chips and semiconductors and other things in our country”.
Chinese response
Beijing has repeatedly urged Trump to back down, with Chinese government officials calling on him to “completely cancel” the rates.
Chinese president Xi Jinping is touring South East Asia this week, visiting Vietname and Cambodia, which were also hit with steep US reciprocal tariffs, currently suspended for 90 days.
China has faced stiff competition from these nations for manufacturing work, as firms attempted to diversify their supply chains from China post-Covid.
However, reports suggest that, amid Trump’s trade war, Xi is seizing the opportunity to form closer ties with other Asian powers.
Amid the tariff threats, Chinese government data from Q1 of 2025 showed that Chinese exports to the US increased 4.5% ahead of US tariffs coming into force.
As previously reported by the Daily Update, shipping analysts said that there had been a surge in imports into the US, as companies looked to beat the tariff deadline.
Week commencing 7 April
11 April
China has responded to the latest increase in US tariffs on its goods this morning (11 April).
Following the US’ announcement yesterday that it was raising the tariff on some Chinese goods to 145%, Beijing has placed its own 125% duty on US goods. The Chinese commerce ministry has described the US rates as so high that they "have become a numbers game with no practical significance in economics".
“It will become a joke,” the ministry added.
The retaliation has sparked falls in the value of stock exchanges around the world, including the UK’s FTSE 100 index, Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40.
Chinese president, Xi Jinping, is making visits to nations in South East Asia in response to the US tariffs, after Trump paused higher ‘reciprocal’ tariff rates on nations like Vietnam and Malaysia earlier this week for 90 days.
Reuters reports that Xi is to visit both Vietnam and Malaysia as well as Cambodia in a bid to deepen “all-round cooperation”. On his country’s relationship with Malaysia, Xi warned that “flowing water cannot be severed”, while he described Cambodia as “ironclad friends”.
Trump has left the door open to a renewed trade deal with China to lower the tariffs, with the BBC reporting that the US president said he would “end up working something out that's very good for both countries”.
10 April
US president Donald Trump has dialled down the heat on his tariff programme by placing a 90-day pause on higher rates of tariffs for most countries – while also ratcheting up the rate on China.
Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform that he would institute a lowered 10% rate of tariffs on goods from all countries except China. This, he said, is “based on the fact that more than 75 Countries have called representatives of the United States, including the Departments of Commerce, treasury, and the [US Trade Representative] USTR, to negotiate a solution” to trade issues that include “trade barriers, tariffs, currency manipulation, and non-monetary tariffs”.
The tariff rate on China was boosted to an even higher level, meanwhile, hitting 125% after an initial 34% rate drew an equivalent response on US goods by China. Today (10 April), China has responded by imposing an 84% levy on US goods.
The change of tack from Trump has nevertheless spurred investment banking firm Goldman Sachs to revise its prediction of a recession in the US. A note seen by the BBC said it was a “closer call” following Trump’s announcement.
That announcement came after the EU announced 25% retaliatory tariffs on a host of US goods including meat, cigarettes, almonds and yachts, according to the Guardian. Maroš Šefčovič, the EU’s trade chief, said in advance that the bloc was “not in the business of going cent for cent or tit for tat or dollar for dollar”.
The EU has now decided to pause these retaliatory measures. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, has said in a statement that its own pause will last 90 days, after which, "if negotiations are not satisfactory, our countermeasures will kick in".
She has also said Trump's decision is “an important step towards stabilising the global economy”. She reiterated her desire for “frictionless and mutually beneficial trade”, and again raised the prospect of a ‘zero for zero’ tariff deal with the US.
The US decision has seen boosts to global stock markets after they suffered in the days following the initial reciprocal tariff announcement. The FT reports that the US S&P 500 index closed up 9.5% yesterday, while the FTSE 100 was up 6.1% in early trading.
Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the director general of the World Trade Organization, issued a statement warning that “merchandise trade between [the US and China] could decrease by as much as 80%”, adding that this could “severely damage the global economic outlook”.
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9 April
US president Donald Trump’s trade war will hammer UK economic growth, according to newly released data.
According to research from the FT and Consensus Economics, the UK’s GDP will only grow by 0.8% this year, down from estimates of 1.2% in January.
The European Central Bank is expecting a similar hit to growth, according to Reuters.
Even though the UK’s exports to the US are largely based on services – which are not hit by the tariffs – chancellor Rachel Reeves warned of “profound” challenges to the global economy yesterday (8 April).
UK prime minister Sir Keir Starmer told a parliamentary committee yesterday that he would not “jump in with both feet” to retaliate. Starmer also said that support is being offered to specific industries, such as automotive and steel, which have been heavily impacted.
The EU is yet to announce its own retaliation. While the bloc has reportedly dropped some US products like bourbon and wine from its list of tariffs, Politico reports that the European Commission (EC) is still looking to hit US goods such as cigarettes, soybeans and steel with 25% tariffs.
This is likely to target US states that gave Trump the most support in last year’s election, as they are more financially dependent on selling agri-products abroad.
The EC’s planned measures are set to enter force in waves; the first on 15 April, the second on 16 May and the third on 1 December.
A final vote on the list of products to target is expected today.
The market continues to react poorly to tariffs, with the bond market “cratering” and government borrowing costs surging. European pharmaceutical companies are among the biggest losers, while both the pound and the US dollar have weakened.
Trump has hinted that a fresh tariff could soon be applied to pharmaceutical imports into the US.
Founder of Bridgewater Associates, Ray Dalio, said that beyond the immediate impact of the tariffs, the forces driving them mean that “we’re witnessing a classic breakdown of the major monetary, political and geopolitical orders.”
8 April
China will face a total tariff rate of over 100% on its goods exports to the US if it follows through with its plan for a 34% tariff on US goods, Trump has said.
Responding to the 34% rate set out at Trump’s ‘retaliatory’ tariff announcement last week, China said the new tariff “seriously undermines China’s legitimate rights and interests”. It also dubbed the imposition of new tariffs as “typical unilateral bullying practice”.
Now, Trump has posted on Truth Social threatening a further 50% tariff on Chinese goods if China’s retaliatory tariff is not abandoned, taking the possible total to 104%. China’s new 34% rate represented only an “increase above their already long-term trading abuses”, Trump argued, and promised the 50% rate would enter force from tomorrow (9 April). He added:
“Additionally, all talks with China concerning their requested meetings with us will be terminated! Negotiations with other countries, which have also requested meetings, will begin taking place immediately.”
Some of those negotiations have indeed begun, and Japan is reportedly first in line. The FT writes that the Asian nation has secured priority in talks with Washington DC, sparking a 7% boost to stocks listed in Tokyo.
Shigeru Ishiba, the country’s prime minister, spoke to Trump yesterday – though this was swiftly followed by another post from Trump on Truth Social reaffirming his belief that Japan had treated the US “very poorly” with regards to trade. Scott Bessent, the US treasury secretary, said he “would expect Japan would get priority as they came forward very quickly”.
Trump has also rejected a proposed concession from the EU on tariffs. Yesterday, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen pitched a “zero for zero” tariff deal on automotive and other industrial goods.
Trump swiftly refused, however, telling journalists in the White House that the offer did not go far enough. Meeting his standards for an agreement on lowering tariffs on EU goods would mean the bloc buying US$350bn in American energy, he said, adding that “they have to buy and commit to buy a like amount of energy”.
7 April
Some Asian nations have indicated they are considering revising their tariff regimes to address criticism by the Trump administration. This, they hope, will earn them a cut to the rate of tariffs imposed on their exports under Trump’s ‘reciprocal’ tariff regime.
One of these countries is the Philippines which, according to Bloomberg, is planning to reduce its tariff rates on imports from the US. The country’s trade secretary, Christina Roque, told reporters today that “we are really going to do that”, following the 17% rate imposed by the US. The Philippines is also considering a joint response to the tariff programme alongside other members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Roque said.
Japanese prime minister Shigeru Ishiba, meanwhile, has said that his government will ask the US to reduce the 24% rate placed on its goods – which is separate to the 25% rate imposed on all car imports into the US, a particular source of concern for Japan. Reuters reports that Ishiba added the country will “ready a package of steps” for responding to the rate.
India, meanwhile, has taken a different tack as it responds to a similar rate of 26% on its exports to the US. It is reportedly planning not to retaliate against the tariff directly, choosing instead to pin its hopes on a clause within Trump’s tariffs that open the door for relief for those countries that "take significant steps to remedy non-reciprocal trade arrangements”. India is now in talks with the US government in hopes of securing a reduced rate by making such concessions.
Week commencing 31 March
4 April
The UK government is weighing up its response to US tariffs of 10% on all its imports, set to come into force tomorrow (5 April).
Business and trade secretary Jonathan Reynolds announced that the government is consulting with UK firms on potential impact of the tariffs, and warned that if UK negotiators are unable to agree a deal by 1 May, the UK could impose retaliatory tariffs.
UK firms can submit their feedback on the tariffs here. They can also share their views on the impact of US tariffs or any future UK retaliatory tariffs with the Chartered Institute, who will be submitting its own response, via publicaffairs@export.org.uk.
Officials are currently working through 417 pages of US products it could apply measures to.
Negotiations have been ongoing since UK prime minister Sir Keir Starmer’s Washington DC visit earlier this year, with treasury ministers saying that they are still “negotiating intensively to secure a deal” that could eliminate tariffs.
US president Donald Trump claimed that Starmer was “very happy” with the 10% rate, while the PM himself described the wider tariff announcement as “the beginning of a new economic era”.
“We need to understand that, just as we have for defence and security, we have to understand the changing world when it comes to trade and the economy”.
Market reacts
The new economic era began with a series of precipitous drops across markets globally, as stocks fell at rates economists compared to the early days of the 2020 Covid pandemic.
Wall Streel was left reeling from a US$2.5trn drop in response to Trump’s tariff announcements, as the S&P 500 – the index tracking the nation’s biggest firms – fell 4.8%. The more tech-oriented Nasdaq composite fell 6%.
The UK's FTSE 100 index fell 1.5% yesterday and a further 0.68% today.
Reverberations were felts elsewhere. Japan’s Topix closed 3.4% lower today, while the Stoxx Europe 600 fell 1% in early trading today (4 April).
Vietnam, which was handed a 46% reciprocal tariff, saw its Ho Chi Minh index drop 3.7%.
Trump has insisted the US economy “will boom” since making the tariff announcement Wednesday (2 April). However, leading economic figures have warned the measures will harm the global economy.
International Monetary Fund managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, warned that the announcement poses “a significant risk to the global outlook”,
WTO response
The World Trade Organization’s (WTO) director general, Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, also released a statement yesterday, in which she said tariffs would have a “substantial implications for global trade and economic growth prospects”.
Dr Ngozi cited WTO estimates that showed the tariffs could lead to an overall contraction of 1% in global trade volumes this year, 4 percentage points lower than initially projected at the start of the year.
She added that she’s “deeply concerned” about these figures and “the potential for escalation into a tariff war with a cycle of retaliatory measures that lead to further declines in trade”.
The former Nigerian finance minister called on member states to “manage the resulting pressures responsibly to prevent trade tensions from proliferating” and said many had already contacted the WTO with questions about the potential impact of tariffs on “their economies and the global trading system”.
EU faces barrage of Asian goods
Aside from the threat of retaliatory tariffs, a further spike in protectionism could emanate from Europe, as the EU faces a wave of Chinese goods diverted from the US.
The FT reports that senior European diplomats and banking figures are anticipating an increase in imports of Chinese electrical goods, after Trump slapped a reciprocal tariff of 34% on Chinese imports, which will be added to an existing 20% levy from Wednesday (9 April).
The Chinese finance ministry said it would impose a 34% tariff on US imports from 10 April.
One diplomat told the publication that the EU would likely need to take “safeguard measures” but were “very concerned” this would sour relations with China.
The EU has already slapped the equivalent of a 35% tariff on a number of China’s electric vehicle manufacturers for benefiting from market-distorting government subsidies, as well as launching probes into the Chinese wind turbine and solar panel industry last year for the same reason.
TikTok divestment
Reports suggest that Trump could be prepared to walk back from China’s tariff rate in exchange for Chinese TikTok owner ByteDance selling the company.
“We have a situation with TikTok where China will probably say ‘we’ll approve a deal, but will you do something on the tariffs’. The tariffs give us great power to negotiate,” the president said aboard Air Force One.
Last year the US passed legislation banning the video-sharing app and e-commerce site, which was approved in January. In order to continue existing in the US, the legislation required that ByteDance divest from the app.
Trump extended the initial deadline for this until 5 April.
2 April
Prime minister Sir Keir Starmer could offer US tech firms a major tax cut in return for tariff relief, according to reports.
The Guardian reports today that the UK government is mulling a cut to the top 2% rate of the Digital Services Tax (DST) on tech firm revenue, while expanding the base of smaller companies required to pay the tax to make up the shortfall. This would have the effect of lowering the amount paid by some of the US’ largest tech companies, including Alphabet, Meta and Apple.
The tariffs planned for today’s ‘Liberation Day’ announcements at 4pm Eastern Time (9pm British Summer Time) include a 25% rate on all car imports to the US, which a report from the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) has suggested could put 25,000 UK jobs at risk.
EU plans
Europe, meanwhile, is planning its own approach to the imminent announcements. Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, has said the EU has a “strong plan” which includes consultation with member states on an €18bn package of retaliatory tariffs covering steel and aluminium as well as a range of food products.
Von der Leyen said yesterday that “Europe has not started this confrontation”.
“We do not necessarily want to retaliate, but if it is necessary we have a strong plan to retaliate and we will use it.”
1 April
UK business and trade secretary Jonathan Reynolds has said that the UK is well-placed to have US tariffs on its goods reversed following their likely announcement tomorrow (2 April).
Speaking to the BBC, Reynolds said that, while he expects the UK to be hit by tariff plans this week alongside the rest of the world’s nations, it is in the "best possible position of any country" to convince the US to offer an exemption in the near term.
"Some of that comes down to the US and whether they want to do that.
“I do believe not only can we get to a place where we are avoiding tariffs on each other, but we're also strengthening that relationship."
‘Pursuing our national interest’
The FT reports meanwhile that Reynolds has called it a “a very serious and significant moment” for the country, and has promised to implement new anti-dumping measures to prevent goods diverted from the US by tariffs from flooding the UK market.
Reynolds has also said “it might not be possible for any country in the world to be exempt from the initial announcements,” and that “it’s not about sucking up to anyone or not responding — it’s about pursuing our national interest”.
He also denied reports that tariffs on the UK could be a US expression of concerns about free speech in the UK. The US State Department said over the weekend that it was “concerned about freedom of expression in the UK”, while a source told the Telegraph that there would be “no free trade without free speech”. Reynolds said that this had only been expressed by the State Department, rather than by US trade negotiators.
Starmer remarks
It comes after a spokesman for prime minister Sir Keir Starmer said yesterday that there had been “constructive” talks between the UK government and the US administration. He added:
"When it comes to tariffs, the prime minister has been clear he will always act in the national interest and we've been preparing for all eventualities ahead of the announcement from President Trump, which we would expect the UK to be impacted by alongside other countries.”
While he added that the government would “rule nothing out in response”, he insisted that it would maintain a “calm and pragmatic approach” as talks continue past Wednesday’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcements.
The government also insisted it would pursue a “US-UK economic prosperity deal” as long as it remained in “the national interest”.
Europe responds
A majority of Europeans surveyed by YouGov this week have said they support retaliation against US tariffs.
Germans, who said they expected their economy to be hit hardest by tariffs owing to the size of their country’s car manufacturing industry, were 68% in favour – though this number was even higher among Danes, who were 79% in favour.
Between 60 and 76% said they expected the wider EU economy to face a significant impact from Trump’s policy.
Stock markets in Europe, the US and the Asia-Pacific region all fell yesterday after Trump dispelled hopes for a programme of tariffs that would be limited only to those countries with the largest trade imbalances with the US.
